Energy Markets, Political Developments, and Corporate Earnings
Markets entered the US midterm count with energy risk back in focus after Brent fell 7.6% on Monday to $104.77 on peace hopes, then rebounded, up 2% initially and later around 0.8%, following reports of US strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island. Democrats were priced at about 71% to win the Senate, but control could hinge on Maine and Alaska; a Maine ranked-choice process could run to about 13 November and Alaska to about 18 November. Lufthansa trimmed the top end of its FY adjusted EBIT range as fuel costs are about €600m above its forecast, while Saudi Aramco reported Q3 net income of SAR137.4bn on revenue of SAR464.3bn. Attention also turns to Wednesday’s US refunding, with Q1 borrowing projected at $800bn, long-end yields above 5.30% on the 30-year, and Treasury’s long-end buyback cap lifted to $6bn from $2bn.
AI-Driven Financing, Market Dynamics, and Global Economic Measures
AI-related financing and input costs rippled through equities and credit. Oracle completed its planned $20bn raise in five days, pricing $10bn of stock at $116, an 11% discount, alongside $10bn of senior notes due 2029–2046, as its shares fell 8.8%. Marvell agreed an all-stock purchase of Lumentum valued at about $771 a share, while Apple guided Q1 revenue up 7–10% yet flagged gross margin of 45–46% as “unprecedented” memory pricing persists. In China, the PBOC raised the FX reserve requirement ratio by 200bps to 6% from 15 November after the yuan reached 6.6621, and it drained a net CNY332bn overnight. The RBA lifted its cash rate 25bps to 4.85% on a 4–3 split, as Swiss CPI printed 1.5%, Korea 2.8% and Turkey 29.8%.
