NZD/USD Dips After RBNZ Decision
NZD/USD dipped below 0.5600 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its policy rate at 2.75% on Wednesday, despite a hike being priced at close to 90%. The move marked the first break under 0.5600 since 15 October, though the pair later recovered to just above that level. The decision was split 4-3, with Governor Breman in the majority, even as all five major New Zealand banks had expected a third consecutive increase; the outcome effectively knocked a quarter-point off the track traders had been pricing. The statement still pointed to tighter policy ahead, while the Federal Reserve also held later at 3.75%–4.00%, keeping the US rate 1.00–1.25 percentage points above New Zealand’s.
Upcoming Economic Data And Technical Levels
Attention turns to US data, with September personal spending forecast to rise 0.6% after 0.9% at 12:30 GMT and income seen up 0.3% after 0.2%, while Friday’s Chicago PMI is expected at 56.1 after 58.8 at 13:45 GMT. In New Zealand, ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence is due at 21:00 GMT after 97.6, ahead of the RBNZ’s December meeting where a hike would require one of the four hold votes to switch. Technically, Wednesday’s slide retraced more than four-fifths of the move from just above 0.5550 on 14 October to just above 0.5700 on 22 October, pushing the pair back under 0.5650; the 50-day EMA sits just above 0.5700 and the 200-day just under 0.5800.
