RBNZ Rate Expectations and Market Movements
New Zealand’s third-quarter CPI is due at 21:45 GMT on Wednesday, with NZD/USD trading just above 0.5700 after five straight daily gains, its highest since September 23, and sitting just under its 50-day Exponential Moving Average. Markets are pricing around an 80% chance the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifts the Official Cash Rate to 3.00% from 2.75% on October 28, making the inflation print a key input for whether that move becomes fully priced or slips back into doubt. The kiwi was firmer on the day as the US Dollar softened, while New Zealand card spending rose 6.9% year on year in September after 3.5% in August. The RBNZ has already tightened in July and on September 2, and a move to 3.00% would leave the rate within a point of the Federal Reserve’s 3.75%–4.00% range when measured to its midpoint.
Inflation Forecasts, US Data, and Technical Levels
CPI is forecast at 0.8% quarter on quarter after 1.5%, with the annual rate easing to 3.8% from 4.1%; the RBNZ’s projections are 0.8% and 3.9%, against a 1%–3% target band. Even an in-line outcome would keep inflation 0.8 points above the top of the band, with the central bank projecting a return inside by mid-2027 and to the 2% midpoint later that year; the prior quarter printed 4.1% versus a 3.9% projection. In the US, jobless claims are seen at 200K versus 199K, while S&P Global’s preliminary PMI readings are expected at 55.6 for manufacturing after 55.9 and 57.9 for services after 58.8; Fed futures imply a hold on October 28 and about a 90% chance of a hike by December. Technical levels cited include resistance near the 50-day EMA a little above 0.5700, then 0.5750 and just under 0.5800, with support around 0.5650 and 0.5600; the daily Stoch RSI is near 78.
