Nomura anticipates a recovery in China’s exports to the U.S. by June, due to rising container bookings and freight rates indicating recovery after trade disruptions. The logistics network, impacted by a near trade embargo, may take weeks to stabilize, resulting in a delayed but stronger export increase.

There are ongoing risks, with worries of a decline after the current 90-day tariff suspension ends in mid-August. Despite this short-term improvement, Nomura remains cautious about the year ahead, predicting export growth to decrease to around 0% in 2025, compared to 5.8% last year, potentially affecting GDP.

Export Recovery Timeline

The excerpt explains that Nomura foresees a short-term bounce in exports from China to the United States by June. This expectation is based on measurable increases in container bookings and shipping charges—early signs that demand for goods is returning after months of disrupted trade operations. Those disruptions had reached a level akin to a de facto embargo, causing bottlenecks across the shipping and delivery chain, but the healing of that system is underway, albeit still fragile. The impact is unlikely to be immediate, with a settling-in period expected before full effect can be observed, meaning the pick-up in exports might be sharper once the logistical dust has settled.

However, optimism is deliberately tempered. There is an end date in play. A 90-day suspension of tariffs is currently easing the flow of goods, but this arrangement is set to expire by mid-August. The implication here is simple: tariff relief is providing breathing space—but not a long-term solution. Once the suspension lapses, the same barriers that stifled exports earlier in the year could resume their role, potentially dragging down trade volumes in the back half of the year.

Furthermore, Nomura’s projection of stagnation in export growth next year—flatlining at 0% from nearly 6% growth the year before—reflects concern about more than just tariffs. Slowing external demand, perhaps in part due to inventory overhang or tightening monetary conditions abroad, could combine with unresolved trade issues to weigh on factories and exporters. Should these forecasts hold, the broader economy, including overall national output, could feel the drag as external sectors offer less support than they had in previous years.

Market Dynamics and Timing

From our standpoint, the data points to a narrowing window of opportunity over the next several weeks—a period where current trade flows remain uninhibited and supported by favourable shipping activity. For structured participants in the market whose strategies are sensitive to cross-border goods movement or freight costs, this limited timeframe may present pricing anomalies in correlated assets.

We should watch freight indices closely, particularly on U.S.-Asia lanes, as they tend to be leading indicators during these types of transitions. Weekly shipment volumes, port throughput figures, and customs clearance data become key—not as broad metrics, but as timely signals in this compressed, pre-deadline period. Similarly, monitoring changes in regulatory commentary from both trading blocs may sharpen timing accuracy for rolling positions as we near the tariff deadline.

Watanabe’s team outlines downside pressure into 2025, which, in derivative terms, could mean the later-dated options will begin to reflect this anticipated cooling. As a result, implied volatility curves could remain fairly tame nearby but begin to lift into later quarters as policy risks become more pronounced. That spread differential is worth watching when considering hedge efficiency.

The forward trade doesn’t imply straight-line outcomes—history rarely cooperates with tidy models. But the balance of positioning should lean into this mid-year pulse, with a heightened state of alert following any decisive commentary around extensions or reversals of the tariff relief. Dry tonnage rates, too, may offer early signs of how underlying demand is behaving once the summer window closes.

With these factors in motion, timing trade entry and rollover may carry outsized weight in the next few months.

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