The New Zealand dollar rose 0.55% over the week to 0.5652 against the US dollar, as the greenback softened with markets unconvinced the Federal Reserve will tighten in October despite firm inflation. US industrial production increased 0.7% month-on-month in September after a 0.1% rise in August, while consumer inflation printed at 3.7% year-on-year versus a 3.6% forecast and producer inflation came in at 6.3% against 5.3% expected. Even so, Prime Terminal put the implied October hike probability at 16%, while the US-New Zealand rate gap remained 125 basis points. Against that backdrop, New Zealand’s calendar turns to the October 18 trade balance and Q3 CPI, with pricing around the October 28 RBNZ meeting showing 85% for a hold, alongside 40 basis points of tightening expected by year-end; for 2027, markets priced 114 basis points of tightening by late year.
Technical Outlook for NZD/USD
Technically, NZD/USD based near 0.5580–0.5600, ran to an 11-day high of 0.5674 and then eased back. Daily SMAs still point lower, but the RSI indicates improving momentum. A move above 0.5750 targets the 50- and 100-day SMAs at 0.5775–0.5781, with the 200-day SMA at 0.5838; downside risk re-emerges below 0.5564, exposing 0.5500.
