Insights 
VT 
US Natural Gas prices experienced a decline, reaching a three-week low with NYMEX Henry Hub futures dropping to intraday lows of $2.9/MMBtu. This marks the fourth consecutive session of decreasing prices, driven by ongoing weekly storage injections countering predictions of cooler weather in late October across the eastern US.
The US Gas inventory increased by 80Bcf last week, aligning with market expectations of around 80.8Bcf and close to the five-year average addition of 83Bcf for this period. Total Gas stockpiles amounted to 3.721Tcf as of 10 October, standing 4.3% above the five-year average, indicating a surplus as winter approaches.
Fxstreet Insights Team
The FXStreet Insights Team, composed of journalists, compiles market observations from experts. The information includes commercial notes and insights from both internal and external analysts.
With natural gas prices slipping below $2.9/MMBtu, the market is showing clear signs of weakness. This is primarily because weekly storage injections are keeping supplies plentiful, overshadowing early forecasts for colder weather. As of October 10th, 2025, our inventories stand at 3.721 trillion cubic feet, a comfortable 4.3% above the five-year average.
This supply glut suggests that traders should consider bearish strategies in the near term. We see opportunities in buying put options on the November and December futures contracts to profit from any further price declines. Establishing bear put spreads could also be an effective way to limit upfront cost and define risk.
This downward pressure is being reinforced by sustained high production, with output from major basins like the Permian and Appalachia hovering near a record 106 Bcf per day. This strong supply is more than offsetting the robust demand from LNG export facilities, which are currently pulling around 14.5 Bcf per day. The market is clearly focused on the oversupply situation for now.
Cautionary Note
However, we must be cautious about becoming overly bearish as winter approaches. The latest forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center show an increased probability of a colder-than-normal start to November in the Midwest and Northeast. Any sign of a sustained cold blast could trigger a sharp rally from these low price levels, catching short-sellers off guard.
We remember the price collapse that followed the very mild winter of 2023-2024, highlighting the risk of a warm winter. Conversely, we also saw how quickly prices spiked during sudden cold snaps in previous years when inventories were drained faster than expected. This makes selling out-of-the-money puts an interesting play to collect premium while betting that extreme cold will provide a floor for prices.
