Technical Support Levels

As of July 4, 2025, NASDAQ futures are indicating a short-term pullback after a strong upward breakout on the 30-minute chart. The market previously broke above the December 24 all-time high, forming a rising channel, and after a brief consolidation, price action continued upward, reaching above the midpoint of the channel.

The current decline of approximately 0.6 percent is notable against the backdrop of recent bullish momentum, especially in a lighter liquidity environment due to the U.S. holiday. U.S. equity markets are closed for Independence Day, yet NASDAQ futures trading continues, with global flows, especially from Europe, remaining active. The rejection from the mid-channel zone implies a temporary withdrawal by buyers.

The main technical support lies between 22,830 and 22,855, aligned with the channel’s lower pane. If this area breaks, the next key level is 22,775, aligned with the July 2 VWAP. A move below this could signal a larger correction or a trend change.

The larger trend stays bullish within the channel. However, today’s pullback hints at cooling momentum. Buyers defending key support zones could indicate a potential new rise, while a break could suggest caution. This session’s reduced U.S. participation requires careful monitoring, especially at the critical support levels.

With the primary U.S. markets shut, thinner volumes can occasionally trigger exaggerated moves. What we’re seeing now looks like one of those cases—a typical pullback driven less by changing sentiment and more by absent players. This type of environment can be deceptive. When fewer hands are on the wheel, even modest selling can push prices lower than expected, especially near well-watched levels.

Near Term Market Behavior

Given recent exuberance, a short breather in price isn’t unwelcome. The advance from last week had extended well beyond the channel’s midpoint, which tends to function as a magnet for price in trending conditions. The rejection there simply signals a reluctance to commit without further confirmation. We’ve noticed this hesitation before, particularly in sessions where broader participation gets disrupted by holidays.

Back to the current zone—22,830 to 22,855 remains the immediate roadblock to any further slide. It’s held through two sessions so far, acting as the base of the current structure. If it gives way now, it’s less about the specific figures and more about the pattern—buyers would no longer be defending recent progress. That next level—22,775—isn’t just a number drawn from midair. It’s been tested and respected in intraweek rotations, and it aligns with a volume-weighted average from earlier this week, underscoring its importance.

As tactical traders, we find this type of environment demands high alertness. Options pricing tends to flatten in these thinner periods, but that doesn’t imply reduced risk. Price can drift rapidly towards known liquidity pockets, especially where stops might be resting. Should the pullback pick up pace, option writers and delta hedgers could be forced into action, thereby reinforcing the move.

Momentum indicators are already adjusting. Price velocity is receding, and we’ve observed fewer higher-high structures forming across intraday intervals. Volume hasn’t disappeared, but its character has changed—we’re seeing more passive flows and less initiative buying.

While the broader trend remains positive, as detailed in the rising channel, near-term caution is warranted. There’s often a temptation to dismiss these minor pullbacks as noise, but they carry information—particularly when aligned with reduced participation. For now, the pressure rests on that support zone. How the market behaves there will tell us whether this is merely a breather—or the start of a more purposeful unwind.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.