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Morgan Stanley has stated that Google will maintain its dominance in the search market despite a recent antitrust ruling. The decision’s remedies are considered likely to have a minor impact on Google’s strong position.
Google will retain control over its Chrome browser and Android operating system as the court did not mandate a break-up. It is anticipated that Google will continue its practice of paying Apple for default placement on Safari, though exclusivity and duration of contracts might be adjusted.
The requirement for Google to share some data with competitors is not seen as a threat by Morgan Stanley. Competing on the same level as Google would require considerable investment, given Google’s unmatched scale, extensive reach, user data flows, and the swift enhancement of its personalised generative AI products.
The antitrust decision from earlier this week has removed a major cloud of uncertainty that was hanging over GOOGL. We’re now looking at a potential collapse in implied volatility, which had spiked to over 40% in anticipation of a harsh verdict, well above its 52-week average of 28%. This environment favors strategies that profit from falling volatility, such as selling puts or credit spreads.
Since the court is not forcing a breakup, the company’s powerful ecosystem of Chrome and Android remains intact. Google’s search market share has held firm around 88% through the first half of 2025, so we see little immediate threat to its core business. This fundamental strength should provide a solid floor for the stock price near its pre-ruling support levels.
Even with requirements to share some data, the path for rivals is incredibly difficult. Competing effectively requires massive capital investment and an infrastructure that can rival Google’s scale and user data flow. The rapid advancements in their personalized AI search tools only widen this competitive moat, making a significant loss of market share unlikely.
We can look back to the Microsoft antitrust case in the early 2000s for a historical parallel. After the legal battles concluded, fears of a breakup faded and the company’s core Windows and Office businesses continued to dominate for years. We may be seeing the beginning of a similar period of relief and stability for GOOGL’s stock.
Considering the reduced downside risk, selling out-of-the-money puts to collect premium seems like a prudent approach for the next few weeks. For those anticipating a relief rally, bull call spreads could capture modest upside while limiting cost. The primary play here is based on the idea that catastrophic risk has been removed, not that the stock is set for an explosive breakout.
