Insights 
VT 
The US Dollar experienced mixed trading, showing weakness against major currencies but displaying modest strength against Asian currencies, including the Japanese Yen. The Dollar Index stood at 99.32, as reported by OCBC’s FX analysts.
A recently approved funding measure in the US Senate passed in the House with a vote of 222-209 and has been signed, bringing an end to the longest government shutdown in US history. The White House announced that October jobs and CPI data might not be released, contrary to earlier predictions.
Technical Analysis
Mild bullish momentum for the Dollar Index on the daily chart has faded, although the Relative Strength Index has risen. Two-way trades are expected to continue, with resistance noted at 100 (the 200-day moving average) and 100.6 (76.4% fibo level). Support is identified at levels 99.10/30 (21-day moving average, 50% fibo retracement) and 98.30/50 (50 and 100-day moving averages, 38.2% fibo level).
We are seeing the US Dollar Index trade around the 104.50 level, with the recent upward push losing some of its momentum. This is a familiar pattern where bullishness fades near key technical points as the market awaits fresh catalysts. The primary focus for the coming weeks will be any forward guidance from the Federal Reserve regarding its 2026 interest rate path.
Last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which came in slightly higher than expected at 3.4% year-over-year, is keeping traders from aggressively shorting the dollar. However, the most recent Non-Farm Payrolls data showed job growth slowing to 170,000, which supports the case for eventual rate cuts. This conflicting data creates an environment ripe for two-way trades, similar to periods of deep uncertainty we navigated back in the late 2010s.
Market Strategies
For derivative traders, this setup makes purely directional bets with simple calls or puts very risky. We believe strategies that profit from a spike in volatility, such as purchasing at-the-money straddles on major currency pair futures like the EUR/USD, are more appropriate. Implied volatility in the options market has already climbed to a three-month high, showing that the market is bracing for a significant price swing.
From a technical standpoint, we are watching resistance at the 105.20 level, which marks the recent multi-month high. Key support can be found near the 50-day moving average, currently sitting around 103.80. Unlike the market risks of the past, such as the record-long government shutdown resolved in 2019, today’s challenges are tied directly to economic data surprises rather than political gridlock.
