Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, spoke recently. Her remarks were overshadowed by other breaking news, such as the U.S. military’s successful strike on Iran nuclear sites.

Daly mentioned that the current monetary policy of the Fed is “in a good place.” She highlighted equal risks to both U.S. employment and price stability mandates. Moreover, she discussed that public guidance on interest rates sometimes incurs costs. Officials should offer guidance on known factors, maintain humility about uncertainties, and adapt to unexpected global developments.

Need For Balance And Humility

Daly’s comments underline the need for balance and humility in decision-making processes. Her approach suggests these principles are also applicable to trading strategies. Historically, Daly has been direct about policy directions. She indicated a rate cut might be more likely in autumn rather than July.

Daly serves as the head of the San Francisco Federal Reserve branch.

Daly’s remarks this week may not have dominated headlines, but they resonate with us, particularly those tracking policy signals. She firmly placed priority on a balanced view—acknowledging that risks to employment and inflation are evenly weighted at present. For us, that signals no hurry. There’s a kind of reassurance there. Markets may hunger for direction, yet the message was measured: policymakers won’t be boxed into a corner or swayed by impatience.

Her warning about the costs of verbal guidance offers a statement worth unpacking. Communication itself can skew expectations. If too much forward clarity is offered, it invites markets to pre-price movements that may not even happen. So, while she supports transparency, it stops short of knowing the unknowable. That tone—deliberate and modest—is one we must heed. Any misstep in assuming more than intended could be costly.

The Importance Of Patience And Accuracy

From our standpoint, this kind of environment rewards patience and accuracy. Overtrading rate expectations or reading too much into each economic print may well prove frustrating in the short run. If market-based rate forecasts continue to drift toward summer easing, we need to revisit whether those moves are anchored in statements like Daly’s, or simply misplaced hope.

Her suggestion that September may be more realistic for rate relief holds weight. There’s a difference between what markets wish for and what officials are preparing to do. Powell and others have side-stepped firm commitments recently, and rightly so. Inflation readings remain muddy—resistant to a clean interpretation. That forces us to look at the coming weeks as not about excitement or sudden shifts, but quiet recalibration.

If we stretch out the timeline, it is clear that decisions won’t be reactive to a single data release. They’re forming a view over time. She’s not exposing any direct policy path now, but she isn’t dismissing the chance either. So we can’t assume steady action—and we should certainly not leverage positions too heavily on short-term changes in rhetoric.

We should also take note of her view on humility. It’s not just a personal trait—it’s a policy guide for uncertain moments. For us, it functions as a warning against assumption. The greater the global unknowns, the more restraint is needed. Whether it’s geopolitics or datasets that miss the mark, flexibility beats conviction right now.

Broadly, we can interpret this stance as consistent with previous messaging: the Fed is not feeling urgent pressure to cut, nor does it see hikes as needed unless inflation surprises again. That kind of symmetry generally leads to range-bound price reactions and makes volatility spikes more reactionary than systemic.

What this means for us is clear. Position lightly. Stay responsive, not proactive. Let policymakers continue to work through the fog. Momentum here will be built slowly, over a longer arc—and it’s unlikely to reward those rushing ahead of the data.

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