Bulls remain dominant as long as key price levels are maintained. Short sellers are advised against taking action unless the E-mini futures (ES) fall below 6,214, which was Friday’s closing VWAP. The market briefly dipped on Friday but fully recovered.
The S&P 500 E-mini futures recently surpassed the previous all-time high at approximately 6,166, initially set on 25 February. This milestone was crossed around 26 June with a breakout above a key descending resistance line. Subsequently, a minor sell-off on Friday retested this line as new support, and prices rebounded to around 6,250.
Key Price Levels To Watch
Traders should monitor two crucial price levels:
6,229: Just below Friday’s Value Area High.
6,214: Friday’s closing VWAP, seen as a pivotal benchmark.
The bullish stance remains intact, provided prices stay above the 6,214 VWAP. Two consecutive 4-hour candle closes below this level could indicate renewed bearish pressure, potentially leading to a retest of the red resistance-turned-support line, with the 6,166 former all-time high as the next critical level.
Throughout June 2025, closing prices and VWAP showed consistent upward trends, reflecting positive sentiment. Closing prices rose from 5,939.75 on 5 June to 6,253.25 on 30 June. The VWAP advanced from 5,924.08 on 2 June to 6,243.83 on 30 June, indicating a strengthening market value.
What we’re seeing here is a market that’s pushed firmly higher through previous highs, with strong momentum confirmed by both price and volume-weighted measures. The fact that price action has stayed above the key levels—particularly the 6,214 closing VWAP from Friday—signifies that upward interest remains strong and unshaken by recent minor dips.
The breakout above the February high wasn’t just a reclaiming of prior territory; it was followed by buyers immediately defending that move during a brief drop. That dip, testing the descending resistance-turned-support, tells us that new buyers were willing to step in—right where they should—giving weight to the idea that the old resistance is now indeed working as support. Pearson would likely interpret that as a show of conviction, not indecision.
Market Reaction And Future Outlook
The retracement on Friday was mild by any measure. It failed to reach deeper support, and the rebound that followed was sharp. That sort of reaction reflects a market still well underpinned, but we shouldn’t grow complacent. While the move above 6,250 was encouraging, it’s only meaningful so long as price doesn’t falter and close repeatedly beneath 6,214. The VWAP here isn’t just a casual line on a chart—it’s reflecting where most volume thought value existed, and any clear moves and closes beneath that can shift perception fast.
Anthony might caution that two firm 4-hour closes under this level could speak to something bigger. While we haven’t seen that yet, we must not ignore that possibility, particularly if buyers appear bruised rather than firm during pullbacks. If support near 6,214 fails, the focus turns immediately towards 6,166, where demand would be tested more directly. That level, the former all-time high, should be watched for telltale signs of renewed accumulation or exhaustion.
There’s another point, though—one that Elliot might underscore. Through June, prices didn’t just crawl higher; they did so with rising participation and consensus. The way both closing prices and VWAP stepped up in unison across the month shows that traders were not only paying higher prices—they agreed that those prices were justified. It suggests that upside wasn’t just speculative; it had commitment behind it.
For now, that trend holds, with price and VWAP continuing to align. And as long as they cooperate, we can approach setups with the assumption that dips represent temporary breaks rather than trend shifts. Short trades are only worth considering once clear structure and volume support the move, not just on the basis of a price twitch.
Patience is necessary when levels like these are holding. Volume-sensitive participants should avoid reacting to first breaches and instead wait for confirmation. That means watching candle structure, flow persistence, and how volume behaves during any descent. We don’t act on guesses—we wait for behaviour to support the view. Right now, the market has simply not yet shown weakness where it matters.
