The Nasdaq-100 Futures have set a sturdy weekly base with a key point of control (POC) at 21,315, serving as a pivotal point for potential market movement. The price exhibited a temporary halt, forming minor consolidation between 21,434 and 21,947, just below the rising regression channel.

Important resistance levels are identified, with the immediate being 21,434, while further resistances are positioned at intervals like 21,497, 21,575, and 21,631. On the flip side, immediate support lies at 21,315 with secondary supports following at 21,169 and 21,077, and further below within the 21,331 to 20,502 range.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

In the bullish scenario, a hold and bounce at the POC can prompt a long entry, targeting a series of upward levels with stops set just below 21,300. Conversely, a break and reclaim at 21,434 allows for aggressive long entries, targeting higher resistances.

In a bearish scenario, failure at the 21,434–21,497 zone can initiate short positions, targeting several lower levels. Additionally, a drop below the POC/VWAP confirms a value shift downward, suggesting lower targets.

The Monday execution plan includes setting pre-market alerts at key levels. A focus on volumes at these pivots is advised, coupled with stringent risk management per setup, adapting to channel respect based trends.

With the Nasdaq-100 Futures establishing a firm weekly foundation at 21,315, this area now acts as a sort of launching point — a weighted average where most recent volume and price action collided, giving it added importance. The current behaviour of price around this level suggests that market participants have accepted it as fair value, at least for now. Above this zone, the market attempted to press higher but met some hesitation in a tight range between 21,434 and 21,947, indicating a hesitation to commit in either direction just under a sloping upward channel.

Understanding Key Price Levels

Given this structure, one can interpret the 21,434 marker not as mere resistance, but as a short-term decision-making zone. If the price rotates firmly through it, volume accumulation will become essential. A move up without meaningful backing from traded volume tends to unravel. But if participants continue to treat this area as reasonable for buying, we might expect cascading targets at 21,497, 21,575, and perhaps 21,631 to be tested in sequence.

On the downside, the 21,315 support should not be treated lightly. If it caves without a fight, there’s a direct pathway to 21,169, and if that too breaches with velocity, the market might swiftly revisit the 21,077 region, potentially unwinding further into a broader zone that bottoms out near 20,502. That would serve as an indicator that sentiment may have shifted more broadly, not just a short-term retracement.

From the way price has behaved above and around the point of control, we can prepare to approach upcoming sessions with a clear preference for reactivity over anticipation. If the market floats above 21,315 and shows signs of strength — such as repeated defended tests near prior resistance — long positions become viable, assuming stops are tucked beneath 21,300 or close to it. However, strength without support on the lower timeframes often leads to punishing reversals.

Should 21,434 break and reclaim, it opens the door for quicker decisions. The path upward isn’t wildly open, though. Each level beyond that is not just a mechanical target — these are zones where volumes compacted in past auctions. One might expect friction at each point unless overriding momentum steps in.

Conversely, sharp rejection or lack of follow-through at the 21,434–21,497 region would indicate buyers remain cautious or sparse. That rejection can very realistically trigger scalps to the short side with the expectation that we start to chew down through the thin volume zones below the POC. Price below both the POC and the VWAP, especially with an accelerating volume profile, tells us value is being accepted lower, often a precursor to quick-range expansions southward.

As we look ahead to early-week execution, it’s not enough to simply mark levels — alerts and triggers should be laid out beforehand during pre-market preparation. Watching closely how the futures behave as they approach or bounce from these levels, along with matching those behaviours to volume imprints or absorption signs, can help build confidence in a directional stance.

Whatever the strategy, the key is maintaining adaptability rather than loyalty to a directional bias. The regression channel’s respect—or eventual negation—will carry weight. We must continue to gauge velocity of moves with volume and keep risk settings mechanical and position-specific. With the groundwork laid, it’s execution and consistency that will separate performance from noise in the week ahead.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.