On 23 June, several foreign exchange option expiries are worth noting, particularly in EUR/USD. The expiries near the 1.1490 to 1.1500 levels might influence price movements, amidst key hourly moving averages between 1.1503-15.

Current dollar flows are largely shaped by developments in the Middle East. The dollar is trading higher, though its effect on the broader risk sentiment remains limited. Therefore, major fluctuations may not occur.

Usd Jpy Levels

USD/JPY should also be monitored, as the pair approaches 147.00, with a 100-day moving average of 146.78. A strong breach at this level could bolster the dollar in upcoming trading sessions.

The information provided outlines key technical levels in both EUR/USD and USD/JPY that may come into play due to pending FX option expiries and wider market forces. With expiries clustered around 1.1490 to 1.1500 in the euro-dollar pair, and various key moving averages sitting around 1.1503–1.1515, the area just above 1.1490 could form a soft ceiling – for now. This proximity of nearby expiry interest and technical indicators creates a zone where supply may emerge, though we might expect only temporary resistance without a broader shift in sentiment or data.

For derivative traders, this means that premiums around this strike could move more than usual, especially if spot hovers in that vicinity closer to the New York cut. Those with positions that mature soon may want to reassess levels of delta hedging in case the spot pushes closer to the upper band of this range. There’s no strong reason to expect a big directional burst without additional drivers, but pricing around those levels could become more erratic during thin liquidity windows.

Middle Eastern Impact on the Market

In the USD/JPY pair, the spot price has been pressing higher, and with 147.00 nearby – overlapping a longer-term trend marker at 146.78 – any real clearance through this zone, with firm closing action, could kick-start bullish momentum. Our desk is particularly alert to whether the 100-day moving average, a historically useful threshold in this pair, will act as a magnet or a springboard. If spot holds firmly above that, even toward the end of the day, one might reasonably expect tactical buyers to lean into strength, especially if implied vols remain contained.

Middle Eastern developments are pushing dollar demand somewhat higher, though it’s been more visible in spot than in options pricing or cross-asset volatility. Risk proxies—like equity index futures and EM FX—aren’t reacting with much force. That leads us to consider this move more technical than anything reflective of panic or broad repositioning.

Therefore, price action around these levels warrants attention, but it doesn’t signal systemic impulse just yet. For those active in gamma or risk reversals, we’re keeping a closer eye on realised volatility over the past five sessions, which continues to undercut implieds, signalling an underwhelming backdrop for vol buyers unless macro surprises emerge soon.

Watch carefully for any intraday reversals that fail around 1.1500 in EUR/USD or for rejection at 147.00 in USD/JPY. Those events could set off quick rebalancing among market makers, and we would expect short-dated options to adjust accordingly.

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