The Institute for Supply Management is due to release its September Services PMI on Monday at 14:00 GMT, with consensus expecting a small rise to 55.7 from 55.4 in August. The prior report showed mixed internals: the Employment Index inched up to 47.8 from 47.4, New Orders accelerated to 60.9, and the Prices Paid Index climbed to 72.6, pointing to persistent cost pressures. Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, even as August CPI and PCE suggested some loss of momentum, while geopolitical risk in the Middle East and the lagged effect of US tariffs remain in focus.
US Services Data and Inflation Dynamics
A print in line with expectations is seen as unlikely to move the US Dollar materially, reinforcing a picture of steady activity alongside sticky prices; a weaker reading could weigh on confidence. In FX markets, EUR/USD has weakened since early September after breaking below its 200-day SMA, with spot near 1.1200. Technical levels cited include support at 1.1064, then 1.1000 and 1.0732; resistance is flagged at 1.1515–1.1520 and the 200-day SMA near 1.1610, while RSI sits around 17 and ADX near 40.
