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VT 
Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba is contemplating US President Trump’s proposal for Japan to purchase US oil. Ishiba noted that this is a consideration requiring more detailed examination.
The current crude oil price is down by $0.17, starting the US session at $65.35. Since June 24, the price has fluctuated between $63.97 and $67. Presently, it trades slightly above its 100-hour moving average of $65.31, hovering around this level as traders determine their next strategy.
Prime Minister Ishiba’s Delicate Tactical Moment
What we have so far is a snapshot of a delicate tactical moment. Prime Minister Ishiba is weighing a direct proposition from President Trump regarding oil imports. The idea: Japan should buy oil from the US. Ishiba’s response isn’t a yes or a no—it is cautious, and he stresses the need for deeper evaluation before making a decision. This signals that governmental channels are still in the process of assessing dependencies, pricing structures, and possibly the broader implications on foreign trade policy.
On the charts, oil prices are playing within a well-defined short-term band—they’ve been ranging from $63.97 to $67.00 since the 24th of June. At present, the barrel sits at around $65.35, which is just above the 100-hour moving average of $65.31. That’s a narrow buffer zone, and from experience, we know that price proximity to key moving averages like this tends to draw greater attention from speculators. It suggests that volume could start building around this region as traders react.
Volatility has remained muted over recent hours, which means intraday participants may be waiting for a trigger. Any meaningful shift—be it political commentary or inventory data—could push the price outside the month’s established highs or lows. In such tight ranges, the lack of direction often results in sudden bursts of movement when one side gives way. For those of us trading tighter timeframes, an alert is warranted in case of a fake breakout that fails to follow through.
Technical Levels and Government Signals
We are watching not only the technical levels but also what governments are signalling. With Ishiba holding back, and Washington eager to redirect trade flows, energy traders must stay aware of non-commodity developments—which often feed directly into price action. While this sits outside the typical barrels-and-storage narrative, it could well become a real price driver if purchasing commitments or long-term supply adjustments are announced.
The range remains intact for now, but momentum has slowed. If we start to see real buyer follow-through above $66.50, particularly with volume stepping up, that may signal risk appetite returning to oil. Similarly, a nudge below $64.00 without recovery could invite short-term sellers eager to retest the lower bounds of the current pattern. Options data may provide guidance here—but price reaction to data prints will tell us even more.
