Insights 
VT 
EUR/USD is currently stable after finding support below 1.15 last week. There is a belief that 1.15 may represent the bottom of the range, but external factors might be needed to drive a rally.
An end to the US government shutdown, alongside the release of delayed data such as the US non-farm payrolls report for September or October, could potentially act as catalysts. However, these developments seem uncertain as the week begins.
Eurozone Data and Analysis
Eurozone data this week includes the German ZEW sentiment survey and an anticipated confirmation of third-quarter GDP growth at 0.2% quarter-on-quarter. For EUR/USD to maintain support early in the week, it should stabilise between 1.1515 and 1.1530.
The FXStreet Insights Team compiles market observations from noted experts, supplementing them with insights from both internal and external analysts.
The EUR/USD pair is currently stalled after finding a floor below the 1.1500 level last week. With the recent US government shutdown having just concluded, the market lacks a clear direction. We believe the 1.1470 low from early November is significant, but any rally from here will require a strong push.
A potential catalyst could be the delayed US economic data, particularly the October Non-Farm Payrolls report, now scheduled for this Friday. Current market consensus points to a subdued 130,000 jobs added, largely due to the disruption from the shutdown. A number significantly below this could provide a temporary lift for the euro, but we feel this may be a weak hope.
Eurozone Challenges and Market Strategies
From the Eurozone, we are watching tomorrow’s German ZEW investor survey, which has been in negative territory for the last five consecutive months. Later this week, the final Q3 GDP figure is expected to confirm sluggish 0.2% quarter-on-quarter growth, highlighting the bloc’s continued economic divergence from the US. These releases are unlikely to provide the positive surprise needed to fuel a rally.
For derivative traders, this suggests that implied volatility may remain low in the short term, making options strategies like straddles or strangles relatively inexpensive ahead of Friday’s US data. The key support level to watch remains 1.1515/1.1530 for any signs of renewed buying interest. This tight, news-driven environment is reminiscent of the summer of 2023, where patience was rewarded when the eventual breakout occurred.
