Gold prices increased in the United Arab Emirates, reaching AED 479.05 per gram from AED 474.47. A tola of Gold rose to AED 5,587.58 from AED 5,534.18.

Global risk sentiment worsened as US President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese exports. This situation escalated tensions, with China responding with possible countermeasures.

Gold Prices Rise Due to Political Uncertainty

Trump attempted to soften his stance, posting on Truth Social about a desire to avoid economic pain. The rhetoric added uncertainty about a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which influenced Gold prices upward.

The US government shutdown may extend into a third week, with a lack of bipartisan cooperation. Trump attributed the shutdown’s impact on federal employees to Democrats.

Trump also mentioned the possibility of sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine if Russia does not end the conflict soon. The geopolitical risks bolstered the appeal of Gold as a haven.

The CME FedWatch tool showed a high likelihood of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Fed in October and December. This scenario favours Gold appreciation.

Gold prices in the UAE are calculated by adapting international prices to local currency and are updated daily. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold to their reserves in 2022, the highest yearly purchase on record.

October 2025 Gold Market Trends

We are seeing gold prices reach fresh all-time highs as we move through October 2025, driven by a combination of geopolitical risk and expectations of easier monetary policy. With December gold futures now trading firmly above the $4,000 per ounce mark, traders should prepare for significant volatility in the weeks ahead. This environment suggests a continued flight to safety among investors.

The escalating trade rhetoric with China is a primary concern, especially with the November 1st deadline for potential 100% tariffs and new export controls just weeks away. Added to this, the threat to introduce new long-range missiles into the Russia-Ukraine conflict is sustaining high geopolitical tension. These factors are fueling strong demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Domestically, the prolonged US government shutdown is weakening the dollar, while the market is pricing in a near-certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Data from the CME FedWatch tool shows a 96% probability of a rate cut this month, a view supported by recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing September 2025’s core inflation cooled more than expected. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, making it more appealing.

Market positioning clearly reflects this bullish outlook. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report from the CFTC revealed that managed money funds have increased their net-long positions in gold futures for the fifth consecutive week. This accumulation by large speculators signals a strong conviction that prices will continue to climb.

Looking back, we see that central bank buying has provided a strong floor for gold prices, with the World Gold Council’s Q3 2025 report confirming that emerging market banks continued to add significant tonnage to their reserves. This institutional demand is a powerful long-term trend supporting the metal. Therefore, derivative traders should consider strategies that profit from further price increases and elevated volatility.

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