Insights 
VT 
Gold prices in the United Arab Emirates remained steady, with a gram priced at 476.88 AED, slightly down from 477.18 AED the previous day. The price per tola was similarly unchanged, at 5,562.20 AED compared to 5,565.76 AED a day earlier.
Geopolitical Influence on Markets
In the larger context, geopolitical developments, such as US President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan initiation, have influenced market sentiments, leading to profit-taking among gold traders. Federal Reserve meeting minutes exhibited consensus on interest rate reductions, citing labor market concerns. The CME FedWatch tool indicates high probabilities for further rate cuts.
The ongoing US government shutdown has impacted financial markets, restraining the US Dollar and indirectly supporting gold prices. Legislative standoffs continue, prolonging economic uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions, notably involving Russia’s stance on US-Ukraine armament, also underpin market dynamics.
Gold prices are calculated in the UAE by converting international pricing in USD/AED to local metrics. Such prices are updated regularly, though local fluctuations may occur. Gold remains an attractive investment during economic volatility, serving as both a secure asset and inflation hedge. Central banks worldwide, particularly in emerging markets, are accumulating gold reserves significantly.
With gold prices steadying around 476.88 AED per gram, the market is currently in a holding pattern. This stability offers a moment for us to position for the next move, as underlying tensions in the market have not disappeared. The current quiet period is likely temporary, making it a critical time to evaluate derivative strategies.
We are seeing some profit-taking after recent geopolitical flare-ups between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea appeared to de-escalate late last month. However, this calm is fragile and any renewed aggression would likely send investors back to the safety of gold. Traders should consider long-dated, out-of-the-money call options as a cost-effective hedge against a sudden return of risk aversion.
Federal Reserve and Market Expectations
The Federal Reserve’s minutes from its September 2025 meeting revealed a deep division among policymakers on the path for interest rates amid slowing global growth. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in a 75% probability of a rate cut by December, a notable increase from just 50% a month ago. This growing expectation of lower rates should provide a supportive floor for gold prices in the coming weeks.
We also have to be mindful of the political situation in the United States, where lawmakers are once again struggling to agree on a budget ahead of the new deadline. The risk of another government shutdown is real, and the memory of the prolonged shutdown in late 2023 still lingers. Such an event would almost certainly weaken the US Dollar and boost gold’s appeal as a safe haven.
We should not ignore the persistent physical demand from central banks, which provides a strong long-term foundation for the price. Building on the record buying trend seen in 2022 and 2023, data from the World Gold Council for the first half of 2025 confirmed that emerging market central banks added another 450 tonnes to their reserves. This underlying bid limits the potential downside and reinforces the case for holding a core long position.
