Insights 
VT 
Market Movements
Elsewhere, the EUR/USD showed minimal movement ahead of critical data from Germany, trading slightly above 1.1550. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD experienced a dip as the dollar bounced back, with this pair trading at 1.3333 as the Asian session progressed. In the cryptocurrency sphere, tokens like Story, Ethena, and Bittensor registered growth, with Ethena and Bittensor showing recovery linked to specific USDtb stablecoin and fund movements.
As US stock markets started the week on a positive note, easing trade tensions helped restore market normalcy. Despite this recovery, the Pi Network experienced a risk in its recovery due to potential increased supply pressures following shifts in its core team wallets.
The strong GDP print from Singapore, coming in at 1.3% versus the 0.3% expected, confirms our view that the economy is resilient. This gives the Monetary Authority of Singapore no reason to ease its policy of a strong currency. This reinforces the appeal of being long the Singapore Dollar against currencies facing more economic uncertainty.
Despite this positive data point, we see significant anxiety in the market with gold pushing past $2,650 an ounce. This relentless buying is supported by record central bank purchases in the first half of 2025, suggesting a deep-seated demand for safe havens. This tells us that any good news is being treated with suspicion, and traders are hedging their bets.
US Federal Reserve Policy
This uncertainty is largely centered on US Federal Reserve policy, as the market awaits clarity on the path of interest rates. Looking back, the aggressive rate hikes of 2022-2023 successfully brought inflation down, but the market now fears they may have slowed the economy too much. The CME FedWatch tool shows traders have pushed back expectations for rate cuts, now pricing only a 30% chance before April 2026, which is supporting the US Dollar.
We are also seeing signs of a fragile global economy in the energy markets. WTI crude oil is struggling to hold the $60 level, a historically low price ceiling even with easing geopolitical tensions. This reflects soft demand, as global manufacturing PMI data has shown only marginal expansion for the last quarter.
For the next few weeks, we should prepare for continued volatility driven by central bank commentary. We favor strategies that capitalize on regional strengths, such as being long the Singapore Dollar against currencies with dovish central banks like the Australian Dollar. Using options to define risk seems prudent until we get a clearer signal from the Fed.
