Insights 
VT 
Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter met predictions with a decline of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. This performance follows adjustments made in response to varying economic pressures.
The US Dollar has strengthened against the Australian Dollar and British Pound. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks and reduced trade barriers between the US and China have underpinned these movements. The ECB left interest rates unchanged as EUR/USD saw fluctuations.
Precious Metals Market
Commodity markets saw gold hovering around $4,000, with trade tensions easing the upward trend. Silver steadied post a 16% correction, remaining above the 50-day SMA.
Cryptocurrencies, notably Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, gained nearly 1%. Reduced trade tensions after the Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea contributed to this positive shift. Zcash maintained its upward momentum, trading near $360, amid ongoing market volatility.
The US-China meeting brought forth reduction in Fentanyl-related tariffs for China, and the resumption of soybean exports for the US. These developments have added a layer of stability to the ongoing trade discussions, affecting related markets accordingly.
Looking back at the market dynamics from years ago, the focus was on the US-China trade truce under the Trump administration. We see echoes of that past volatility today, as the market is now pricing in risks from a new set of trade negotiations, this time centered on technology and resource access rather than tariffs. This environment suggests hedging against sharp, headline-driven swings in equity indices will be prudent.
Implications Of Monetary Policy
We remember the market reacting to Powell’s “hawkish cut,” which signaled the end of an easing cycle and set the stage for the tightening of the early 2020s. With the latest US core CPI print coming in at 3.1% last week, the narrative is shifting toward the Federal Reserve holding rates steady through the first half of 2026. This makes long-dollar positions look increasingly vulnerable after their multi-year run, and we should consider options strategies that profit from a sideways or declining dollar.
Gold’s challenge of the $4,000 level back then was capped by the temporary easing of trade tensions. Today, that same level is being tested again, driven by central bank buying and persistent inflation rather than fleeting political sentiment. We have seen open interest in gold futures rise by 8% this month alone, which suggests traders are positioning for a breakout rather than a pullback.
The struggles for EUR/USD near 1.15 and GBP/USD around 1.31 were notable during that period of dollar strength. Today, with the Euro finding a floor around 1.10 and Sterling failing to hold 1.25 following the UK’s bleak 0.1% Q3 GDP growth report, the theme remains dollar dominance. Options pricing shows a growing bias for downside in the Pound, particularly against the Euro, as the ECB maintains its hawkish stance compared to the Bank of England.
Mexico’s GDP contraction back then was an early warning sign for emerging market sensitivity to US policy. That dynamic remains firmly in play, as we saw the Peso weaken past 19.50 to the dollar last month on renewed fears of a US manufacturing slowdown. We anticipate that any further signs of US economic weakness will disproportionately impact peso derivatives, creating opportunities for those positioned for volatility.
