Insights 
VT 
In September, existing home sales in the United States registered at 4.06 million. This was lower than the anticipated 4.1 million.
In various markets, crude oil is challenging its 50-day simple moving average following US sanctions. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reduced its losses on Thursday as markets stabilised.
Gold And Cryptocurrency Market Trends
Gold has seen an uptick, bouncing above $4,100 as buyers step in ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Bitcoin is testing resistance at $110,000 amidst a rise in retail trading, and Ethereum is edging higher toward a significant hurdle.
The Japanese Yen remains stable following the installation of Sanae Takaichi as the new Prime Minister. Aster has experienced a price rise, trading just above $1.00, as the broader cryptocurrency market shows positive sentiment.
The EUR/USD trade lacks clear direction around 1.1600 as markets continue to assess trade developments. Interestingly, GBP/USD is under pressure as expectations for a Bank of England rate cut grow by year-end.
Market Fluctuations And Economic Indicators
The recent miss in September’s existing home sales, coming in at 4.06 million, points toward a cooling US economy. This softness, continuing a trend we’ve seen through the summer of 2025, adds weight to the view that the Federal Reserve may be forced to pause its tightening cycle. We are therefore watching options on SOFR futures for signs that the market is pricing in a more dovish Fed heading into 2026.
With gold consolidating above $4,100 an ounce, the market is clearly hedging against sustained high inflation ahead of the upcoming US CPI report. We have seen core inflation remain stubbornly above 3.5% for much of the last two years, reminiscent of the persistent price pressures of 2022. Volatility plays on gold futures could be beneficial, as a surprise in the CPI number will likely cause a sharp move from these elevated levels.
The US Dollar’s strength against the Euro and Pound reflects a clear policy divergence that we expect to continue. The market is increasingly pricing in a potential Bank of England rate cut by year-end, while the European Central Bank has held its key rate steady at 4% since last year. We see continued value in long dollar positions, perhaps through call options on the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP).
Recent choppiness in the Dow Jones suggests underlying weakness, and we shouldn’t mistake a single day’s recovery for a new bull run. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has been elevated, sitting above its historical average of 19 for the past quarter, indicating sustained market uncertainty. Buying protective put options on major indices like the SPX seems like a prudent strategy to hedge against a downturn.
Geopolitical tensions are putting a floor under WTI crude oil prices, with sanctions remaining a key catalyst for the rally. These supply-side risks, which have flared up intermittently since the global conflicts of the early 2020s, are unlikely to disappear soon. Bull call spreads on crude oil futures could offer a cost-effective way to gain upside exposure while defining risk.
