Insights 
VT 
Japan and Oil Prices
China’s house price index increased to -2.2% in September from the previous -2.5%, showing a slight improvement. Meanwhile, China’s economy expanded by 4.8% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, consistent with expectations.
Oil prices stabilized as WTI held steady near $57.00 amid OPEC+ oversupply concerns. The Japanese yen weakened as fiscal concerns resurfaced with the revival of the LDP-JIP coalition.
Currency markets showed fluctuations, with EUR/USD trading subdued near 1.1650 after France’s credit rating was downgraded. GBP/USD held above 1.3400, affected by a softer US dollar and dovish Bank of England expectations.
Gold prices decreased to around $4,245 as demand waned following the festive period. The crypto market saw a rebound for Mantle, Zcash, and Bittensor over the weekend, while BNB, Solana, and Cardano experienced double-digit losses due to significant liquidations.
China House Prices and Economic Growth
The upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi at the APEC summit is anticipated by market participants as a potential point of tension or negotiation. This context adds to the complex dynamics in global financial markets.
The slight improvement in China’s house price index, moving to -2.2%, suggests the property crisis we have been watching since the Evergrande collapse in the early 2020s may be finding a floor. However, with GDP growth at a modest 4.8% and the PBOC guiding the yuan weaker, we should see this as managed stabilization, not a robust recovery. The strength in the Australian dollar seems like a temporary reaction, making it a candidate for selling call options if further Chinese data disappoints.
Europe presents a clearer, more bearish picture for us to act on. The downgrade of France’s credit rating to A+ is a significant event, confirming underlying fiscal weakness in a core Eurozone economy. We should consider buying puts on the EUR/USD, as the pair struggling near 1.1650 shows a clear lack of confidence that is unlikely to reverse in the coming weeks.
Geopolitical tensions are creating a major divergence in the commodities market that we can exploit. Gold holding near $4,250, nearly double its price from the highs of 2024, shows extreme demand for safe havens ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. In contrast, WTI oil is languishing at $57, suggesting the market is far more worried about a global slowdown than any supply disruption.
The weakness in crude oil is directly tied to OPEC+ oversupply concerns, a familiar story for us. We saw similar struggles back in 2024 when several members, including Iraq, consistently produced above their agreed-upon quotas, undermining price stability. Selling out-of-the-money call spreads on WTI futures seems like a prudent strategy, as a price spike above $65 seems unlikely without a major catalyst.
Finally, the crypto market is signaling a broad risk-off mood following over $1 billion in liquidations. With major altcoins like Solana and Cardano dropping more than 10%, the speculative froth is being aggressively removed from the system. This deleveraging event makes it wise to hedge any remaining long positions by purchasing puts on Bitcoin and Ethereum futures.
