Insights 
VT 
In September, Canada’s unemployment rate was reported at 7.1%, which was below the expected forecast of 7.2%. This data indicates a slight improvement in Canada’s job market for the month.
Global Economic Conditions
Global economic conditions were also affected by US-China trade tensions. Major market indicators reacted to these tensions, as seen with the S&P 500 futures and global commodity prices such as crude oil experiencing declines.
Gold saw an increase in its value, reaching the $4,020 mark. This rise is attributed to global uncertainty and its status as a safe-haven asset amidst market volatility.
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin maintained short-term support levels despite market fluctuations. Bitcoin remained traded between $120,000 and $121,000, while other digital currencies were close to their critical supports.
US tariff policies continued to play a role in international trade. These tariffs are used as a key component of the US’s foreign policy and financial strategy, affirmed by recent government commitments.
Litecoin showed positive movements, with its price reaching approximately $130. This increase is due to growing retail interest, half a recovery from earlier bearish sentiment and market volatility.
Canadian Jobs Report
The latest Canadian jobs report came in stronger than expected on October 10, 2025, with unemployment at 7.1%. This positive surprise increases the chances that the Bank of Canada might raise interest rates to combat inflation, which we saw tick up to 2.9% last month. We should consider call options on the Canadian dollar, as it is likely to strengthen against the US dollar.
Overall market fear is rising sharply due to renewed US-China trade tensions. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has surged above 25, a level we haven’t consistently seen since the banking sector uncertainty of early 2024, making options premiums expensive. This is a time to consider protective put options on indices like the S&P 500 to hedge portfolios against a further downturn.
The US dollar is weakening against the euro and pound, which is unusual during a flight to safety. This is because the source of the risk is perceived as US policy, similar to what we observed during the trade disputes back in 2018 and 2019. Traders are likely selling the dollar while buying currencies where the central bank outlook is more certain.
We are seeing classic risk-off moves in commodities as WTI crude oil has fallen below $60 a barrel, signaling fears of a global economic slowdown. Conversely, gold has soared past the $4,000 mark as investors seek safety. Shorting oil futures or buying call options on gold are direct ways to play these diverging trends.
The Australian dollar’s slump is a clear reaction to the renewed uncertainty surrounding China, its largest trading partner. Its weakness is a barometer for global trade fears, and we have seen its correlation with Chinese economic data strengthen throughout 2025. Put options on the AUD/USD pair offer a direct way to position for further trade-related anxiety.
The Fed’s desire for a balanced policy is now being tested by these geopolitical shocks. We are seeing the market begin to price out any further rate hikes for the remainder of 2025, with Fed Fund futures now implying a 20% chance of a rate cut by year-end. This shift suggests that options tied to interest rate volatility will become increasingly active.
