Insights 
VT 
In September, Singapore’s industrial production increased by 26.3% month-on-month, exceeding the forecasted 8.6%. This reflects a substantial growth in manufacturing output for the period.
In the UK, retail sales unexpectedly rose by 0.5% in September, against an expected decline of 0.2%. This positive data has impacted the Pound Sterling positively, with investors now focusing on upcoming PMI and US CPI data.
Currency Trends
The USD/INR saw a decline, even as the Indian Rupee remained strong despite a slowdown in India’s flash PMI growth. Meanwhile, USD/CAD moved above 1.4000, influenced by a bullish reversal trend due to market dynamics.
Gold’s performance showed volatility, hanging close to $4,100 early on Friday, as geopolitical tensions influenced its prices. The rise of the US Dollar and Treasury yields contributed to this situation.
Chainlink’s price remained above $17 after a 2% recovery driven by the buyback of 63,481 LINK tokens. Retail interest remains muted, affecting its market position. Elsewhere, the appointment of Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s new Prime Minister influenced market perception of the Yen.
Singapore’s Economic Surge
Last month’s report on Singapore’s September industrial production was a massive upside surprise, clocking in at 26.3% growth. This number, blowing past the 8.6% forecast, signals a powerful surge in the manufacturing sector. For us, this suggests the regional economic engine is running much hotter than anyone anticipated.
This wasn’t a one-off event, as confirmed by the advance Q3 GDP estimates showing 3.5% growth, well above expectations. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) took notice in its October policy review, maintaining its tightening bias on the currency. This policy stance provides a strong tailwind for the Singapore Dollar.
We see continued strength in the Singapore Dollar, which has already moved from near 1.38 to 1.35 against the US Dollar in recent weeks. Traders should consider buying call options on the SGD to capitalize on further appreciation. This provides upside exposure while capping the maximum loss if the trend reverses.
This strength is also a bullish signal for Singaporean equities, especially in the electronics and manufacturing-linked sectors. Looking at Straits Times Index (STI) futures or call options is a direct way to play this economic outperformance. Historically, such strong domestic data, combined with a recovering global semiconductor cycle like we saw in 2024, often precedes a rally in the index.
The ripple effects extend to commodities, as Singapore’s role as a major trading hub implies stronger demand for energy and industrial metals. However, the main risk remains global factors, particularly the upcoming US inflation data. A surprisingly high US CPI print could strengthen the US Dollar universally and dampen this regional strength.
