Insights 
VT 
In Commodity Markets
Ripple (XRP) faced downward pressure, trading below $2.40 due to exchange reserve fluctuations. On the corporate front, FalconX planned to merge with asset manager 21Shares, potentially expanding their product offerings.
Retail forex traders are met with various options, as top brokers for 2025 have been highlighted. These include brokers with low spreads, high leverage options, and tailored services for different regions like MENA and Latin America.
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Market Outlook
With Russian industrial output for September coming in at just 0.3%, well below the 0.9% we expected, a bearish outlook on the Russian economy is forming. This weakness suggests that derivative positions betting against the ruble, such as long USD/RUB futures or call options, could be profitable in the coming weeks. The data points to deeper economic issues that are unlikely to resolve quickly.
The broader market is sending mixed signals, with renewed trade war fears and an ongoing US government shutdown creating significant uncertainty. This environment is ideal for volatility plays, as sharp market swings become more likely. We believe buying straddles or strangles on major indices like the S&P 500 is a prudent way to capitalize on a large price move, regardless of the direction.
In the currency market, we are seeing the US dollar weaken, allowing the EUR/USD to climb back above the 1.1600 level. This is a significant recovery from the lows near parity that we saw back in 2023. Given the pressure on the dollar, we view call options on the euro as an effective strategy to gain exposure to further upside.
Crude oil is showing strength, with WTI gaining traction on a weaker dollar and tighter supply. The latest report from the Energy Information Administration this month showed a surprise US inventory draw of 4.1 million barrels, adding to bullish sentiment. We see this trend continuing, making long positions in WTI futures or call options on oil ETFs attractive.
Gold remains under pressure near the key $4,000 mark, primarily due to rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury note recently hitting 4.5%, a multi-year high. We saw a similar dynamic in late 2022, where rising rates capped gold’s appeal even during periods of high inflation. This suggests that put options on gold could offer a good hedge against further increases in yields.
