Insights 
VT 
In September, Russia’s foreign trade reached $13.595 billion, a rise from the previous $7.466 billion. This increase highlights a shift in economic activity and trade dynamics within the country.
Various other market movements were observed, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagging due to AI stock recovery and delays in data release. Gold prices declined below $4,100, affected by the stronger US dollar and the Federal Reserve’s rhetoric.
The Foreign Exchange Market
The GBP/USD rate fell to 1.3140 amid the dollar’s gains, with political and fiscal concerns in the UK adding pressure. Conversely, cryptocurrencies faced a bearish trend, with Bitcoin trading above $97,000 but showing weaker demand across the market.
VeChain experienced a mainnet upgrade, switching from a Proof of Authority system to Delegated Proof of Stake. This change aims at enabling the network’s growth, despite the digital asset’s 15% downside risk looming.
Weekly markets focus on analysing post-shutdown US data and the potential effects on investor sentiment. It’s important to note that no investment recommendations are made, emphasising the need for personal research and risk assessment before financial decisions are undertaken.
Given the hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve, we see the market has significantly reduced bets on a December rate cut. This sentiment is being driven by recent inflation data, which, despite a slight moderation, remains stubbornly above the Fed’s target, with the last Consumer Price Index reading for October 2025 coming in at 3.4%. Consequently, the probability of a rate cut has fallen to just 15% from over 50% a month ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Impact Of Interest Rates On Market Trends
This dynamic is fueling a strong rebound in the US Dollar, putting pressure on major currency pairs. We’re watching EUR/USD struggle to hold the 1.1600 level, while GBP/USD is slipping toward 1.3140, further weighed down by recent weak UK retail sales figures and ongoing uncertainty about the government’s fiscal plans. Derivative strategies that favor dollar strength, such as buying puts on the EUR or GBP, appear well-positioned in the coming weeks.
Gold is a direct casualty of this environment, breaking below the key $4,100 mark as rising US Treasury yields make the non-yielding metal less attractive. The US 10-year yield has climbed back to 4.75% this week, and if it continues, we expect gold to test the psychological support at $4,000 per ounce. Traders should consider short positions or protective puts on gold-related assets until the Fed’s stance softens.
We are also seeing this risk-off sentiment spill into more speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. With institutional and retail demand waning, Bitcoin has pulled back from recent highs to around $97,000, and recent data shows consistent weekly outflows from digital asset investment products over the past month. This suggests that in an environment of tighter monetary policy, capital is flowing out of high-risk assets.
The surprise jump in Russia’s foreign trade surplus to nearly $13.6 billion is a notable data point, likely driven by firm energy prices throughout the third quarter of 2025. While this provides some fundamental support for Russian assets, the global macro picture is dominated by the strong US dollar. It would be risky to fight the broad market trend based on this single piece of country-specific data.
