In September, Singapore’s retail sales experienced a downturn, falling to -1.4% from the previous month’s figure of 0.5%. This decrease demonstrates a shift from the positive growth seen earlier, suggesting a potential change in consumer spending behaviour.

The information is intended for informational use, without encouraging any specific financial decisions. It is recommended to conduct personal research before any investment activities.

Market and Economic Insights

Various aspects of the market and forecast are discussed, including changes related to forex and other global economic indicators. Particular attention is given to currency exchanges, retail price movements, and overall market trends.

Traders and financial enthusiasts are advised to consider various reports, such as the ADP Employment Report, which could reflect changes in job creation and economic conditions. The content further sheds light on the US Dollar’s current status and potential future movements related to geopolitical factors and Fed policies.

All data presented outlines potential economic shifts without asserting a definitive outcome. There is an emphasis on the unpredictable nature of market conditions, underlining the necessity for personal diligence when engaging in market-related activities.

Global Currency and Market Movements

The drop in Singapore’s retail sales to -1.4% in September looks familiar to us. We saw a similar, though less severe, contraction of 0.8% in September 2025, signaling persistent weakness in Asian consumer demand. This trend suggests considering short positions on currencies sensitive to regional trade, such as the Australian dollar.

Risk-off sentiment is once again boosting the dollar, just as it did in the past when the DXY was pushed by similar fears. With the Dollar Index holding firm above 107.50 following a solid October 2025 jobs report that added 210,000 positions, betting against the greenback seems risky. We should view any dips in the dollar as potential buying opportunities in the coming weeks.

We remember seeing EUR/USD struggle below 1.1500, but the landscape has shifted dramatically. Now, with the Euro barely holding 1.0500 against the dollar due to stubbornly weak German factory orders, options traders might look at strategies that profit from further downside or range-bound price action. The pair’s inability to reclaim higher ground suggests selling into any strength.

Fears of a US government shutdown previously drove gold higher, and today’s geopolitical uncertainties are having a similar effect. Gold has found strong support around the $2,150 per ounce level throughout October 2025. Any increase in market volatility could provide fuel for call options or long futures positions, using that level as a guide.

The focus on US data like the ADP report is as critical now as it was then, as it directly informs Federal Reserve policy. Given that recent Fed communication has pushed back on rate cut expectations for early 2026, volatility around upcoming inflation and employment data will be high. Traders should prepare for sharp moves and consider straddles or strangles on major indices ahead of these key releases.

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