Insights 
VT 
Australia’s part-time employment saw a drop from 35.5K to 6.3K in September. This decline affects the Australian Dollar, raising expectations for a potential rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Gold continues its upward trajectory with its value nearing $4,250, supported by safe-haven flows and a weaker US Dollar. The RSI indicates overbought conditions, suggesting continued interest in the precious metal as a secure investment amidst economic uncertainty.
Cryptocurrency Market Challenges
Aster, PancakeSwap, and Immutable are experiencing losses as the cryptocurrency market undergoes a second wave of supply dumping, coinciding with Bitcoin revisiting the $110,000 mark. Consequently, these tokens are facing challenges in the current market climate.
Lido DAO has shown signs of recovery after launching its Lido V3 testnet. The token reclaimed support above $1.00 on Wednesday, with the testnet aiming to upgrade Lido Core contracts on its main protocol, indicating progress in its development strategy.
The sharp drop in Australia’s part-time employment is a clear signal of a slowing economy. We see this weak data, falling from a revised 35.5K to just 6.3K, as locking in a future rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia. We are positioning for this by looking at buying AUD/USD put options or shorting Australian dollar futures.
Gold’s march towards $4,250 is being fueled by a deep distrust in government fiscal policy. Looking back, the massive stimulus packages of the early 2020s set the stage for today’s debt problems, with the US debt-to-GDP ratio now sitting above 130%. For us, this means continuing to ride the trend through long positions in gold futures or by purchasing call options.
Cautious Approach to Market Conditions
However, we must respect the fact that the market is technically overbought, which often precedes a correction, much like the one we saw in the summer of 2024. This suggests a more cautious approach could involve using bull call spreads to limit risk while maintaining upside exposure. Selling out-of-the-money put options could also generate income while we wait for a potential dip to buy into.
In crypto, we are witnessing a flight to safety as Bitcoin retests $110,000 while altcoins bleed out. This is a classic pattern we’ve seen before, where Bitcoin’s market dominance index climbs above 55% as speculative money leaves smaller projects. A viable strategy here is a pairs trade: long Bitcoin futures against short positions in a basket of weaker altcoins.
The rally in Lido DAO is a short-term, news-driven event that stands apart from the broader market weakness. The V3 testnet is creating excitement, but these catalysts often have a short shelf life. We view this as an opportunity to sell call options at higher strike prices, betting that the rally will lose steam once the initial hype fades.
