Insights 
VT 
The M2+CD money supply in Japan increased to 1.6% in September from 1.3%. In the US, stock markets rallied, reversing losses from the previous week’s sell-off due to easing trade tensions with China.
The Japanese yen remains weak amidst domestic political issues and uncertainties surrounding the Bank of Japan. The US dollar index remains stable above 99.00, with hopes for a resolution in the US-China trade conflict.
Currency Market Movements
The GBP/USD currency pair saw a decrease of 0.13% as the US dollar experienced a rebound. Gold is challenging a key resistance level as bullish sentiment persists amid ongoing US-China trade concerns.
In the cryptocurrency market, Story, Ethena, and Bittensor are leading a recovery but continue to face resistance levels. The Pi Network has seen recovery for three consecutive days despite bearish trends.
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Japan’s money supply figures for September 2025, which showed M2 growth ticking up to 1.6%, reinforce our view on the yen’s trajectory. This continued monetary expansion, combined with ongoing political uncertainty, keeps the yen on a path of weakness. We see this as a clear signal to consider buying call options on the USD/JPY pair, especially with the cross currently trading firmly above 158.
Market Strategies and Analysis
The broader market tone has improved after last week’s dip, with the S&P 500 recovering over 2% as global supply chain concerns appear to be priced in for now. With the VIX index falling back below 16 from its recent highs, we believe selling out-of-the-money puts on major indices could be a prudent way to collect premium. This move reflects a return to a more stable, risk-on environment similar to what we’ve seen in previous quarters this year.
The US dollar remains strong, supported by last week’s Core CPI data that came in slightly hot at 3.1%, dampening expectations for any near-term Fed rate cuts. This interest rate differential is a key driver keeping the dollar bid against currencies like the yen. Consequently, derivative plays that benefit from a strong dollar should continue to be favored.
Given the dollar’s strength, gold is struggling to break past resistance around the $2,250 level. We see this as an opportunity for range-bound strategies, such as selling covered calls against existing gold positions or establishing iron condors on gold ETFs. This approach allows for generating income while the metal remains capped by a robust greenback.
