Insights 
VT 
Japan’s national Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding food and energy saw a decrease from 3.3% to 3% year-over-year in September. This metric provides insight into inflation trends, excluding volatile sectors like food and energy.
The US Dollar has strengthened, causing a decline in gold prices as market participants anticipate the US Consumer Price Index data. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar fell as the US currency gained strength in anticipation of the US CPI report.
Currency Market Trends
EUR/USD remains steady near 1.16, as the market awaits US inflation data, while GBP/USD has slipped for the fifth day, struggling just above the 1.3300 mark. Gold prices fluctuate, staying close to $4,100, with market focus on US-China trade talks and US CPI data.
Solana saw a 6% rise following Solmate’s announcement about its plans for a Solana validator in the Middle East and a strategy for mergers and acquisitions. Aster’s price increased slightly, reflecting positive sentiment in the crypto market, amid Bitcoin and Ethereum price growth.
We are seeing a familiar pattern with Japanese inflation, reminding us of the slowdown to 3% core CPI back in September of a prior year. As of today, October 24, 2025, Japan’s core inflation has struggled to stay above 2.5%, with the most recent data showing a dip to 2.4%. This persistent softness reinforces the market’s view that the Bank of Japan will delay any significant rate hikes into 2026.
This environment suggests continued weakness for the Yen, a theme we have seen play out for several years since the days of Prime Minister Takaichi’s appointment. The USD/JPY, currently trading near 162.50, is a far cry from the levels seen when traders worried about gradual normalization. Derivative traders should consider buying call options on USD/JPY to capitalize on the widening interest rate differential with the US.
Impact of US Inflation Data
The focus on US inflation data remains as critical now as it was then, though the landscape has changed dramatically. We remember when a 3.1% US headline CPI was the major market-moving event, but now we are contending with a stickier inflation rate that has hovered around 2.8% for the last quarter. This has kept the Federal Reserve cautious, and the US dollar strong, holding the EUR/USD pair down near 1.07, well below the 1.16 levels seen in the past.
Given this, implied volatility on major currency pairs is likely to spike ahead of the upcoming US PCE data release next week. Traders could use option strangles on pairs like GBP/USD, which is currently sensitive to shifts in rate expectations on both sides of the Atlantic. This strategy would profit from a large price move in either direction, which is a real possibility given the current uncertainty.
Gold is also telling a story of sustained, low-level anxiety in the market, though not at the levels once discussed. While we saw old reports mentioning gold near $4,100, today it sits at a more terrestrial price of around $2,550 an ounce. Still, its resilience is notable, as it continues to be propped up by geopolitical risk and central bank buying, despite high US Treasury yields.
For those trading gold derivatives, selling cash-secured puts below the current market price could be an effective strategy. This allows traders to collect premium while expressing a cautiously bullish view on the metal’s value as a long-term hedge. If the price of gold drops, the trader acquires it at a lower cost basis.
