Insights 
VT 
In the week leading to Thanksgiving, markets such as the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow experienced their best four-day performance since May. This pre-holiday rise is attributed to thin trading volume and optimistic market expectations.
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We are seeing a classic Thanksgiving melt-up in the US stock markets, but the move feels fragile. Trading volume this week has been nearly 40% below the 30-day average, suggesting this rally on dovish hopes could easily reverse when full liquidity returns next week. Derivative traders should consider hedging long equity positions with cheap, out-of-the-money puts before traders are back at their desks on Monday.
Market Levitation Hopes
This market levitation is built on the hope that the central bank is done tightening. With the CME FedWatch Tool showing an 85% probability that we see rates held steady in December, any surprisingly hot inflation data or hawkish comments could quickly unwind these recent gains. Volatility derivatives, like VIX futures, may be underpriced here and offer a good hedge against a policy surprise.
In the crypto space, Cardano is showing notable strength, with on-chain data signaling a potential move above $0.50. Open interest in ADA perpetual futures has climbed significantly this month, indicating new money is backing this rally. For those with an appetite for risk, call options or leveraged long positions could be considered, using the recent low around $0.40 as a clear invalidation point.
Across the Atlantic, the strong Italian industrial sales data is a welcome surprise for the European economy. However, it contrasts with the broader Eurozone manufacturing PMI we saw last week, which remains in contractionary territory below 45. This divergence could create opportunities in currency derivatives, particularly for traders positioning for volatility in the EUR/USD pair around upcoming ECB announcements.
