Insights 
VT 
In September, Ireland’s retail sales increased month-on-month from -1% to 0.2%. This improvement marks a shift in consumer spending behaviour.
Germany’s annual CPI inflation in October dropped to 2.3%, compared to the 2.2% expected. Meanwhile, the GBP remained relatively stable, though there is a soft undertone.
Euro Strength and Market Reactions
The EUR demonstrated modest strength due to firmer EZ GDP reports. The EUR/JPY held near record highs with the weakening Yen post-BOJ decisions; focus is now on the ECB’s upcoming decision.
The CAD levelled at the mid-1.39 range, with the USD showing mixed signals following the latest Federal Reserve decision. In other markets, the EUR/USD retracted to 1.1570 ahead of the ECB.
Additionally, the GBP/USD hovered near six-month lows around 1.3120. Gold prices showed recovery signs, although still below $4,000 after the ECB.
The crypto market showed recovery linked to eased trade tensions between the US and China after a meeting between Xi and Trump. This development has provided some stability in the market.
Best Forex Brokers 2025
Articles provide overview of the best forex brokers expected in 2025. These evaluations address brokers based on criteria such as low spreads, leverage, and regional pros and cons.
The modest uptick in Irish retail sales, paired with German inflation remaining firm at 2.3%, suggests pockets of resilience in the Eurozone economy. This persistent inflation, still above the European Central Bank’s target, will likely keep the ECB from signaling any rate cuts in the near future. We see this as a supportive environment for the euro, especially after Q3 GDP for the bloc was confirmed at 0.4%, showing a slight expansion.
Given this backdrop, we should consider strategies that benefit from a stable or strengthening euro against currencies with a weaker outlook. Call options on the EUR/GBP pair appear attractive, as the pound continues to show softness following last week’s UK manufacturing PMI data which dipped further into contractionary territory at 48.5. This allows for a defined-risk bet on continued divergence between the two economies over the coming weeks.
The US dollar remains mixed after the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates in September left the market uncertain. With the latest Non-Farm Payrolls report from early October 2025 coming in just above expectations at 190,000, the data isn’t decisive enough to signal the Fed’s next move. This uncertainty often increases short-term volatility, making options straddles on the USD a viable strategy to play a potential breakout in either direction ahead of the December meeting.
Gold’s position below the significant $4,000 level also presents an opportunity for derivative traders. After its strong rally through 2024, the metal has been consolidating, and such periods of low volatility often precede a significant price move. Buying long-dated call options could be a way to position for a potential breakout driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions or a shift in Fed sentiment.
