Insights 
VT 
Ireland’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in September, moving away from the earlier increase of 0.4%. This shift reflects changes in the cost of goods and services consumed by households within the country.
Elsewhere, the foreign exchange markets saw the Euro reduce losses against the Swiss Franc after the European Central Bank’s (ECB) maintained a consistent monetary policy stance. The GBP/JPY slipped following a four-day rally as markets reconsidered the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook.
Gold Prices and Cryptocurrency Trends
Gold prices remained near record highs amidst expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and continued uncertainty due to a prolonged US government shutdown. Meanwhile, the EUR softened due to weaker German trade data, while the CAD held steady ahead of a Bank of Canada speech.
Cryptocurrency markets saw declines, with Bitcoin facing a correction nearing $121,000, while Ethereum and Ripple also saw reductions. An ongoing use of US tariffs highlights their position as a major policy instrument for the current administration. Monero showed gains, trading around $333, following positive market data and investor interest.
The drop in Irish inflation to -0.2% for September is a clear warning sign for the Eurozone economy. This is the first negative monthly inflation reading we have seen from a member state in over a year, suggesting that the European Central Bank’s steady policy stance is being tested by weakening demand. We should view this as a signal to consider put options on the EUR/USD, as the pair struggles to hold above 1.1600.
Impact of US Government Shutdown
Meanwhile, the ongoing US government shutdown, now entering its fourth week, is fueling a significant flight to safety. This risk-off environment strengthens the US Dollar and is the primary driver pushing Gold above the key $4,000 level. History shows us that prolonged shutdowns, like the 35-day event back in 2018-2019, create sustained uncertainty that benefits safe-haven assets.
With the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook remaining unclear, we anticipate market volatility will continue to climb. The lack of guidance from Fed officials is causing options premiums to rise, reflecting investor anxiety. This environment is favorable for strategies that profit from large price swings, such as long straddles on major equity indices.
The pullback in Bitcoin to near the $121,000 mark is a classic sign that traders are reducing their exposure to riskier assets. After the significant run-up we witnessed through the second quarter of 2025, a correction was likely, and the current uncertain macro environment is accelerating it. This retreat from speculative assets further reinforces the bullish case for Gold and the US Dollar in the short term.
