Insights 
VT 
Indonesia’s exports for September recorded a growth rate of 11.41%, surpassing forecasts which estimated a 7.72% increase. This figure indicates a stronger export performance than anticipated.
In the wider market, the Australian Dollar gains ground due to a cautious outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen remains at a multi-month low against the US Dollar amid uncertainties surrounding the Bank of Japan.
Gold Prices Surge
Gold prices continue to rise beyond $4,000, benefiting from increased safe-haven demand following recent political remarks. The potential for the US Federal Reserve not cutting rates in December provides additional support for the US Dollar.
Meme coins like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe are experiencing a downturn, as interest from large investors diminishes. Cardano’s price drops below $0.58, influenced by decreasing on-chain activity and increasing short positions in the market.
In the currency markets, the EUR/USD is trading around 1.1530, influenced by decreased speculation on a Fed rate cut. Similarly, the GBP/USD stays below the mid-1.3100s, following a trend amid the current economic backdrop favouring bears.
US Dollar Strength Continues
We are seeing the US Dollar continue its powerful run, as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December 2025 diminish. With the Fed Funds Rate holding firm above 6.0% since the third quarter, the Dollar Index (DXY) is testing highs not seen since the inflation scare back in 2022. Derivative traders should consider strategies that benefit from this strength, such as buying puts on the EUR/USD, which is struggling below 1.1550.
The flight to safety is evident as gold prices push beyond the $4,000 mark, a historically significant level. Despite a strong dollar, which typically pressures gold, geopolitical uncertainty is driving this demand, with open interest in COMEX gold futures surging by 15% in October 2025 alone. Traders could look at buying call options on gold to capitalize on further upside while limiting downside risk from any sudden sentiment shifts.
We should not overlook the strength in specific emerging markets, as seen with Indonesia’s export growth of 11.41% beating forecasts. This continues a trend of positive trade surplus data for Indonesia throughout 2025, which has averaged over $4 billion per month according to recent government statistics. This could present an opportunity for relative value trades, such as going long on the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) against currencies with weaker central bank outlooks.
The current environment is punishing speculative assets, with significant downturns in meme coins and altcoins like Cardano. We’ve seen the Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunge back into “Extreme Fear” territory, a level it hasn’t held for this long since the major correction in early 2024. For those exposed, buying protective puts on crypto-related ETFs or shorting futures on the more volatile assets could be a prudent move.
