Insights 
VT 
Gold prices in Pakistan remained stable on Tuesday, with the price per gram at 35,936.21 Pakistani Rupees, a slight dip from the previous day’s 35,961.88 PKR. The price per tola was also steady, decreasing marginally from 419,452.20 PKR on Monday to 419,161.40 PKR.
US Federal Reserve expectations of interest rate cuts contributed to a softer US Dollar, supporting Gold’s modest rebound from a recent low. Traders anticipate rate cuts of 25 basis points this week and another in December, as suggested by the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Geopolitical Tensions and Gold’s Appeal
Recent US inflation figures showed a 3% year-over-year rise in September. US President Donald Trump’s response to Russian missile tests has added geopolitical tensions, possibly influencing Gold’s safe-haven appeal.
US-China trade discussions, with a framework for a potential deal, could foster positive equity market sentiments. This may deter traders from making aggressive moves in the Gold market leading up to significant central bank meetings this week.
FXStreet determines Gold prices in Pakistan using international prices, considering local currency rates. Local prices may slightly differ due to market fluctuations.
Gold is generally seen as a secure investment in volatile times and is largely held by central banks to bolster economic and currency strength. Central banks purchased 1,136 tonnes of Gold in 2022, a record acquisition.
Current Expectations and Trading Strategies
As of October 28, 2025, we are seeing a familiar pattern where expectations of future Federal Reserve policy are creating a tense environment for gold. The latest September 2025 CPI report showed core inflation at a stubborn 3.2%, which is keeping the Fed cautious about signaling any definitive rate cuts. This differs from the period around 2019 when the market was confidently pricing in multiple cuts.
The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 45% probability of a rate cut by the second quarter of 2026, a notable increase from just 20% a month ago. This growing expectation that the hiking cycle is over puts a floor under the non-yielding precious metal. Traders should watch for shifts in these probabilities as a leading indicator for gold’s next move.
For derivative traders, this suggests that implied volatility may rise ahead of the next FOMC statements. The tension between a potentially hawkish Fed in the short term and a dovish pivot next year makes long-dated call options an interesting way to position for future easing. Shorter-term traders might consider straddles to play the volatility around upcoming economic data releases.
Geopolitical factors also remain a key support, much like the US-Russia tensions mentioned in the past. While specific conflicts have changed since the Trump administration, persistent global instability and the ongoing trend of de-dollarization continue to fuel safe-haven demand. The World Gold Council’s Q3 2025 report confirmed central banks added another 250 tonnes to reserves, providing steady underlying support for the market.
This backdrop suggests a strategy of buying dips rather than chasing rallies, as a firm US Dollar could cap significant upside in the coming weeks. Selling cash-secured puts below established technical support levels, such as the 200-day moving average, could be a viable strategy to either acquire gold at a lower price or collect premium. The inverse correlation with the US Dollar remains the most critical variable to monitor daily.
