Insights 
VT 
Mexico’s core inflation in October was reported at 0.29%, slightly above the forecasted 0.28%.
The United States Dollar to Canadian Dollar exchange rate retreated in response to strong Canadian jobs data.
Decline in Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 50.3 in November, which was below the expected 53.2.
Gold prices consolidated near $4,000, impacted by cautious market sentiment.
The British Pound to United States Dollar hovered around 1.3150 as concerns over a US government shutdown affected household sentiment.
In financial market forecasts, the Euro is nearing key resistance levels around 1.1600 against the US Dollar.
Dogecoin showed a rebound, with potential effects from the anticipated launch of a Bitwise ETF.
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We are seeing that Mexico’s core inflation for October came in slightly hotter than expected at 0.29%, which is a concern. This reminds us of the persistent price pressures we dealt with back in 2023, suggesting the Bank of Mexico will be forced to keep interest rates high for longer. This backdrop makes holding long positions in the Mexican Peso against other currencies an attractive strategy for the coming weeks.
The US dollar is weakening significantly, driven by very poor domestic data and political uncertainty. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index just fell to 50.3, a worrying level that echoes the deep pessimism we saw during the economic turmoil of mid-2022. Talk of another government shutdown is not helping, so we expect traders to continue selling the dollar against major currencies like the Euro and Pound.
This dollar weakness and cautious sentiment are pushing capital into safe havens, most notably gold. We see gold consolidating near the $4,000 per ounce mark, a level supported by massive central bank purchases that have been accelerating since 2023, which the World Gold Council noted has exceeded 800 tonnes annually. Derivative traders should view this as a strong floor, making call options a viable way to gain exposure to further upside.
Looking at other currencies, the Euro is showing renewed strength and is now challenging the key resistance level of 1.1600. Similarly, the Canadian dollar has strengthened following a robust Canadian jobs report, which stands in stark contrast to the deteriorating sentiment south of the border. We expect these trends to continue, offering opportunities to buy into these currencies on any minor pullback.
In the crypto markets, there is a specific, event-driven trade gaining attention around Dogecoin. Its recent rebound is tied to the possibility that a Bitwise ETF could be approved and launched in approximately 20 days, putting a key date around November 27th on our calendars. This is a highly speculative catalyst, so using options to trade the anticipated volatility would be a prudent approach.
