Insights 
VT 
Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.4 in November, falling from 49.6 the previous month. This marks a continuation of the sector’s contraction, as figures below 50 indicate a decline.
In other market news, the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered due to AI-related concerns and a decrease in Bitcoin. Gold climbed to a five-week high, hitting $4,264, driven by speculation of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Currency Markets
The EUR/USD exchange rate drifted toward 1.1600 as the US dollar experienced a resurgence spurred by rising yields. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair moved lower to around 1.3200, also affected by the dollar’s strength despite expectations of more dovish Fed actions.
Cryptocurrency activity has resulted in nearly $2 billion being extracted from Ethereum traders since 2020. The role of China in global markets has shifted from being a revenue engine to becoming an innovation hub, offering new expansion strategies for companies.
Comments on the evolving crypto market cycle and Binance’s future plans were shared by SB Seker, head of Asia Pacific at Binance. A detailed guide on top brokers and trading platforms for 2025 was also provided, listing options for those interested in currencies, gold, and CFDs.
The market is convinced the Fed will cut rates soon, which is why gold is pushing towards $4,300 per ounce. We should consider buying call options on gold futures, as this momentum is supported by the inverse relationship between gold prices and falling real yields. Historically, when the Fed signaled a pivot, as it did in late 2023, gold began a significant multi-month rally.
Market Opportunities
Don’t be fooled by the dollar’s short-term bounce, as the overwhelming expectation of Fed cuts should weaken it in the coming weeks. Current interest rate futures show the market is pricing in an over 80% probability of a rate cut by the March 2026 meeting. We see this as a chance to purchase puts on the US Dollar Index (DXY) or establish bullish positions in pairs like EUR/USD.
Canada’s manufacturing sector is signaling a clear slowdown, with the S&P Global PMI dropping to 48.4, well into contraction territory below the 50.0 threshold. This economic weakness makes the Canadian dollar vulnerable, even with firm oil prices. We believe long positions in USD/CAD through call options offer a good risk-reward profile.
The decision by OPEC+ to halt production increases creates a floor for crude oil prices, a strategy they also employed effectively through 2023 and 2024 to manage supply. With these supply risks supporting the market, WTI crude futures are likely to remain elevated. Bull call spreads on WTI could be a cost-effective way to gain exposure to further upside.
We are also seeing some nervousness in equities, with the Dow Jones under pressure from concerns over the AI sector and a sliding Bitcoin. This could be a good time to add downside protection to portfolios. Buying puts on the S&P 500 or call options on the VIX index can hedge against a potential increase in market volatility.
