Insights 
VT 
New Zealand’s quarterly employment report is anticipated to reveal an increase in unemployment. Wage inflation is predicted to decrease year-on-year, aligning with levels of low and stable inflation.
These trends may support the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s potential interest rate cut decision on August 20. On August 6, 2025, the Asian economic calendar will display relevant data, with all times listed in GMT.
Economic Calendar Overview
The calendar shows prior results in the far-right column, with consensus median expectations in the adjacent column, when available. This provides a snapshot of anticipated economic developments in the region.
Tomorrow’s employment data from New Zealand is the main event we are watching. We see consensus expects higher unemployment and softer wage growth, building the case for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates. An official rate cut could come as soon as the next meeting on August 20.
A rate cut would likely put downward pressure on the New Zealand dollar, as lower rates make holding the currency less attractive for yield-seeking investors. This expectation has been slowly building over the past few weeks. Derivative markets are beginning to price in a higher probability of a cut.
Positioning for a Weaker Kiwi
Given this outlook, we see value in positioning for a weaker Kiwi dollar in the coming weeks. Buying put options on the NZD/USD offers a defined-risk way to capitalize on a potential decline. This strategy could be effective leading into the August 20 RBNZ meeting.
This view is supported by recent data showing a slowdown. The latest inflation report from July 2025 showed headline CPI fell to 2.8%, finally re-entering the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band after a prolonged period above it. We have also seen business confidence surveys from last month dip to their lowest levels in over a year.
We remember the aggressive rate-hiking cycle the RBNZ implemented through 2022 and 2023 to tame inflation. The data we are seeing now suggests those hikes have taken full effect, cooling the economy enough to warrant a policy shift. Tomorrow’s jobs report is a key piece of that puzzle.
For those trading interest rate derivatives, positioning for the RBNZ cut is also a key theme. Futures contracts tied to the Official Cash Rate are already reflecting easing expectations. Any surprise in tomorrow’s data, such as a larger-than-expected jump in unemployment, would likely accelerate this trend.
