In May, wholesale inventories in the United States were expected to increase by 0.1% but instead fell by 0.3%. This deviation highlights the unexpected reduction in inventory levels for that period.

The EUR/USD is consolidating gains near 1.1700, with the US Dollar remaining weak as focus turns to upcoming ECB and US data events. GBP/USD is trading above 1.3700, maintaining long-term highs due to ongoing US Dollar vulnerabilities.

Gold prices are maintaining a mild positive trend, though they remain below $3,350 amid concerns over the future of the US central bank’s independence. Bitcoin Cash is inching closer to the $500 mark, supported by bullish momentum and on-chain data forecasts.

impact of strait of hormuz closure on oil markets

The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing concern in the oil markets due to escalating conflicts involving Iran. This strategic sea route is vital for the global oil supply, making it a focal point of tensions.

Guidance is available for selecting top brokers to trade financial markets, focusing on various strengths such as low spreads and high leverage. Investors are advised to carefully consider these options while navigating the ever-changing market landscape.

What we’ve just observed in May’s wholesale inventory data—a drop of 0.3% instead of the modest 0.1% rise forecast—implies that businesses weren’t replenishing their stockpiles at the rate economists had expected. That’s not just a minor bookkeeping detail. When inventories fall unexpectedly, it may suggest that either demand outstripped supply faster than anticipated, or that firms are uncertain about future consumption patterns and are proceeding more cautiously. For us, this points to potential adjustments ahead when assessing demand-side pressures, particularly in how they shape short-term funding costs and inflation-sensitive instruments.

In the currency space, while EUR/USD appears to be holding above 1.1700, what matters now is not where it stands but why. The muted tone of the US Dollar continues to be driven by the lack of firm policy signals from Washington and a general wait-and-see approach as markets prepare for upcoming macroeconomic prints from both sides of the Atlantic. Once Lagarde’s next speech is dissected and the Fed minutes are fully priced in, any deviation in core inflation prints or wage growth trends may cause rapid repricing in euro- and dollar-based contracts.

Similarly, GBP/USD hovering over 1.3700 is not just a reflection of domestic resilience, but more a by-product of persistent scepticism surrounding the Greenback’s near-term strength. Bailey’s camp has managed to avoid commitments on rate flexibility, yet the underlying message in labour numbers still leans towards stickier inflation risk. For those engaged in foreign exchange-linked options, volatility around policy recalibration remains a primary input. Skew remains tilted.

Turning to safe haven demand, gold’s effort to sustain a mild upward path—still shy of $3,350—illustrates a hesitation among traditional hedges. Investors appear unwilling to push prices higher amid broader doubts about the structural independence of central monetary policy. While not much has changed on the supply side, the shift in sentiment is palpable. That’s worth noting in calendar spreads or leveraged ETF holdings, where directional bias has softened even as net positions remain long. The momentum is fragile.

digital assets and gold market trends

As for digital assets, the steady climb by Bitcoin Cash towards the $500 mark is being underpinned by internal metrics rather than speculative flows. Transactional data suggests rising user activity, which is feeding into short-term momentum but has yet to affect medium-term volatility assumptions meaningfully. While price action has been bullish, funding rates and volume profiles don’t display euphoria, leaving some room for derivatives traders to explore short gamma structures with defined risk.

Meanwhile, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz adds an entirely different layer of risk. It’s not just a shipping route; it’s where more than a fifth of daily global oil passes through. Any disruption there threatens immediate upward pressure on crude benchmarks. What’s disconcerting isn’t so much the geopolitical headlines, but rather the tightening in supply expectations reflected in forward contracts. With Brent and WTI time spreads already reflecting risk premiums, there’s elevated sensitivity to fresh conflict signals. Be wary of overexposure in energy-linked derivatives.

We’ve reviewed the lead indicators— inventories, commodity flows, benchmark currencies, and sentiment drivers. Each tells its own story, but together they offer a map that doesn’t lie. Actionable? Yes, absolutely. But contingent on careful broker selection, particularly when using leverage, and awareness of execution costs. Fast markets don’t forgive slow responses.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.