Insights 
VT 
In the first half of June, Mexico’s inflation rate was reported at 0.1%, falling below the anticipated 0.12%. This update reflects a slower rise in consumer prices during this period.
In the currency markets, the EUR/USD has reached new highs of 1.1640, influenced by optimistic remarks from the US Federal Reserve Chairman. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is trading above 1.3600, strengthened by comments from UK and US central bank leaders amid reduced recession concerns.
Gold And Bitcoin Prices Rise
The price of gold is approaching $3,300 as reports indicate easing tensions in the Middle East following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Bitcoin’s price has stabilised around $105,000, with a 4.33% rise attributed to the same ceasefire, fostering a more positive global market outlook.
There is ongoing speculation about possible disruptions in the oil market due to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. This key strategic waterway is once again under scrutiny due to growing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran.
The lower-than-expected monthly inflation figure from Mexico, released for early June, reveals a cooling in consumer price growth. This softening reduces the likelihood of aggressive rate hikes by the central bank, potentially shifting capital flows towards higher-yielding currencies. In past cycles, inflation reading misses—especially on the downside—tend to be a marker for policy recalibration. So if you’re watching LatAm assets, particularly those exposed to CPI surprises, this is a moment to reassess premium assumptions in rates and FX pricing.
Across the Atlantic, the euro moved decisively higher against the dollar, breaking through 1.1640, after remarks from Powell hinted at potential shifts in rate timelines. That tone, interpreted as constructive by currency markets, gave the green light for a push upwards across majors. At the same time, the pound has firmed up, benefiting from comments made by both Bailey and Powell, which toned down fears of an impending economic contraction. These kinds of statements can provoke rebalancing across FX, especially in EUR/GBP and crosses tied to expected growth differentials.
We see a similar alignment forming in commodity safe-havens. Gold is now moving close to $3,300 per ounce. This isn’t just technical—it reflects a recalibration following conflict de-escalation between Iran and Israel. Safe-haven bids begin to back off as military risk reduces, and flows that were previously defensive rotate out. That being said, don’t lose awareness of implied vol in these positions. Historical levels indicate that spikes following geopolitical events often correct swiftly, dragging options premium with them.
Energy Markets And Rate Moves
Bitcoin continues to hover just above $105,000—a level not seen in typical cycles—and the 4.33% gain can be largely traced to the sense of regional calm returning. Unlike traditional assets, crypto often prices in sentiment faster. But once that sentiment plateaus, liquidity tightens quickly and volatility retraces. Keeping a careful eye on open interest allocation across different contract months can potentially show whether this rally has enough leverage behind it to sustain, or is simply a retreat from short-covering.
In energy markets, the area of concern remains the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a considerable portion of global oil shipments. Renewed unease here can act as a fast-moving trigger for a spike in crude prices. As a known geopolitical chokepoint, traders watching Brent and WTI spreads will likely reprice risk if naval or aerial confrontations reappear. The past week brought some temporary calm, but nobody’s filing this away as resolved. There’s typically a premium attached to supply-side risk from that corridor, and any hardening in military positioning, or comments from military leadership, could move that premium higher.
For positioning over the next few weeks, we may consider market-implied probabilities of rate moves in DM curves, given how dovish or balanced recent policy messaging feels. Skew remains a useful barometer here—especially when comparing US and UK short-end contracts. In FX futures, where you see a sustained upward drive, move carefully. Appetite from real money can often be fleeting following soft CPI or deconfliction events.
We should consider hedging any forward exposure where price response has drifted too far from fundamentals. Carry can still be earned in these environments, but when volatility eases abruptly, structures relying on sustained divergence may underdeliver. Option strategies may deserve another look, particularly in underpriced vol markets, especially considering activities surrounding Middle East developments.
The signals are drawing attention for now, not because one event decides direction, but because several of them are overlapping. Take note of how quickly gold and crypto moved in tandem with the ceasefire news—it wasn’t random. These asset classes are watching each other. So should we.
