In June 2025, China’s exports valued in yuan rose by 7.2% compared to the previous year, up from 6.3%. Imports also saw growth, increasing by 2.3% year-on-year, rebounding from the prior 2.1% decline.

The trade balance in June was 743.5 billion yuan, unchanged from the month before. From January to June, yuan-denominated exports grew consistently by 7.2% on a year-on-year basis.

China’s External Trade Momentum

The article thus far gives us a clear snapshot of momentum in China’s external trade during the first half of 2025. Export growth steadying at 7.2% is a noticeable improvement, particularly in the context of expanding overseas demand or strategic price competitiveness. Import figures, on the other hand, show modest recovery—moving from negative territory in May into positive ground in June—suggesting either firmer domestic spending or selective inventory restocking from manufacturing sectors.

Li’s data implies that China’s trade engine is holding, though not accelerating broadly. A stable trade surplus, sitting unchanged at 743.5 billion yuan for June, adds to the impression that demand and supply forces remain in relative balance within external accounts, at least for now.

For those of us interpreting market direction through contracts and premium shifts, what stands out is the consistency in export growth. That steadiness, over a six-month horizon, tends to encourage the pricing-in of sustained foreign currency inflows. For hedged positions keyed to yuan moves or Asia-bound manufacturing proxies, that steadiness offers some reassurance. It suggests a reduced chance of deep export shocks surfacing in Q3.

Zhao’s remarks last week had hinted that import recovery might follow a stop-start pattern, but June’s bounce-back already seems to soften that stance. If factories are bringing in more intermediate goods again, that underpins higher forward-looking utilisation rates. For futures tied to iron ore, industrial metals, or even soft commodities with China as the main importer, this creates potential footholds in long strategies, provided macro catalysts abroad don’t undercut them.

Implications For Market And Currency

From our point of view, the short-term read is that a reacceleration in domestic demand might not be visible yet, but the bottom likely held in Q2. That lends a bit more solidity to the input side of pricing equations. Seasonality will soon begin to taper off, but June’s consistency may mean less erratic positioning, especially within producer hedging on margins or volatility brackets.

There is also the currency implication. Exporters receiving steady foreign receipts enhance conversions to yuan, particularly when the currency basket is steady or sees slight downward pressure from the dollar. For those managing exposure in offshore renminbi contracts, a tighter bias toward neutral or yield-cushioned carries may become more logical until new data resets the scenario. Liquidity conditions haven’t tightened materially, which lowers the risk of sudden spikes in margin requirements on long yuan-linked trades.

Looking ahead, the structured pace of trade data—in both outbound and inbound directions—lends itself to bracketed positions. High-beta reactions on single-month data would seem less rational unless paired with surprise movement either from policy or external demand contractions. Volumes should be monitored carefully for confirmation. Those of us using spreads to gauge sentiment might consider focusing on ratios where relative resilience can be clearer, especially if major data from the US or Europe triggers a swift correction in risk orientation.

Finally, the unchanged trade gap indicates stability in the net contribution of trade to the currency’s fundamental valuation. If policy choices in monetary or fiscal areas remain aligned with these flows, positioning tied to interest-rate differential shifts should be balanced by an awareness of commodity terms as they continue feeding through the import ledger in Q3.

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