Singapore’s foreign reserves increased to 409.3 billion in December from a previous 400 billion. This marks a growth in the country’s financial stability and resource pool.
The ADP Employment Change Report for December will be released, showing the US economy expected to create 45,000 jobs. This comes after a net employment loss of 32,000 jobs in November 2025.
Concern Over Venezuela Developments
Developments in Venezuela, with the deposition of Nicolás Maduro, are causing concern. However, there are no expected changes to market or economic forecasts due to these events.
Aave (AAVE) is trading around $172, near the upper trendline of a falling parallel channel pattern. A break above this pattern could indicate a positive trend for investors.
Singapore’s jump in foreign reserves to $409.3 billion signals a strong and stable Singapore Dollar. Looking back, when we saw similar reserve growth in 2021, the SGD strengthened against the US dollar over the following quarters. We believe buying SGD/USD call options with March or April expiration dates could capture this potential upside.
We are watching the upcoming US ADP employment report, as the market is pricing in a significant swing from a loss to a gain. A major disappointment on the expected 45,000 jobs, especially after the net loss reported in November 2025, could weaken the dollar and boost equities. Traders might consider buying short-dated VIX call options to profit from the burst of volatility that would follow such a miss.
Wildcards in Oil Markets
The instability in Venezuela is a major wildcard for crude oil, even if it is not affecting our broader economic forecasts yet. Historically, supply fears from political turmoil in OPEC nations can cause crude prices to spike, as seen during various events in the last decade. We see an opportunity to buy out-of-the-money call options on WTI crude futures as a low-cost way to position for a potential oil price surge.
In crypto markets, Aave is testing a critical resistance level around $172. A confirmed breakout above its falling channel could trigger a sharp rally, similar to the pattern Bitcoin broke in early 2023 which led to a sustained rally of over 50% in the following months. We would look to enter long positions using AAVE perpetual futures once the price closes decisively above this trendline on a daily chart.
