The United States export price index rose 3.1% year on year in December. It was 3.3% in the previous reading.
This shows a 0.2 percentage point slowdown in the annual rate. The data refers to export prices measured by the export price index.
Export Price Inflation Eases
The December 2025 report showing the U.S. Export Price Index decline to 3.1% confirms a trend of easing price pressures. This suggests that the strong dollar and restrictive monetary policy from last year are successfully cooling a key inflation component. We see this as a clear signal that the economic environment is shifting.
This data point reinforces the latest Consumer Price Index report for January 2026, which showed core inflation falling to 2.8%, a level we haven’t seen since the middle of 2024. This continued disinflation makes it much less likely that the Federal Reserve will consider further interest rate hikes. We should now be positioning for a more neutral or even dovish stance from the central bank.
Given this outlook, we believe the U.S. dollar is poised for weakness against currencies with more hawkish central banks. The European Central Bank, for instance, held its key interest rate at 3.5% last week, signaling ongoing concerns about wage growth. This divergence makes strategies like buying EUR/USD call options or futures contracts attractive over the next several weeks.
This environment is also favorable for interest rate products, as easing inflation should put downward pressure on bond yields. We saw a similar dynamic back in the second half of 2023 when early signs of disinflation triggered a powerful rally in the bond market. Consequently, buying call options on long-duration Treasury bond ETFs appears to be a prudent move.
Equity Strategy Implications
For equity markets, a less aggressive Fed is a significant tailwind, especially for growth and technology stocks. We should consider purchasing call options on major indices like the Nasdaq-100 to capture this potential upside. Selling out-of-the-money put options is another viable strategy, as it profits from a stable or rising market.
