Insights 
VT 
Australia’s S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 52.6 in October, up from 52.4. This marks a slight increase in purchasing activity.
The PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0928, down from 7.1235. Japan considers adjusting financial income tax, with no decisions made yet.
Us Dollar Index Performance
The US Dollar Index shows slight losses below 99.00. Traders are focusing on US CPI inflation data, impacting currency pairs like NZD/USD and USD/JPY.
Japan’s national CPI increased 2.9% year-on-year in September. This includes a predictable rise in core CPI.
The EUR/USD held steady near 1.16 with minor dollar gains. This occurred ahead of the anticipated release of US inflation data.
GBP/USD has declined for five trading days, struggling around the 1.3300 mark. The pair met resistance at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average.
Gold remains stable around $4,150 per troy ounce. Traders wait for US CPI data amidst mixed market factors.
Ethereum Whale Activity
Ethereum whales accumulated over 200K ETH, pushing holdings to 22.31 million. Despite market volatility, this group increased their assets.
Japan’s new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, steadies the Yen. Concerns about fiscal and monetary policy mismatches remain.
Aster price rose slightly, trading above $1.00. Positive cryptocurrency sentiment lifted Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.
The slight uptick in Australia’s composite PMI to 52.6 suggests the economy remains resilient, which will likely keep the Reserve Bank of Australia from cutting interest rates. We see this as a signal that the Australian dollar may find support in the coming weeks. Traders might consider strategies that benefit from a stable or strengthening AUD, such as selling out-of-the-money put options on the currency.
All market activity is pausing ahead of the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data. Recent economic releases from September 2025 showed that core inflation was still stubbornly high at 3.5%, so we are bracing for another number that could force the Federal Reserve’s hand. Any figure that suggests inflation is not cooling will likely cause significant volatility across equities, bonds, and currencies.
We remember the sharp, painful market drops following hot inflation reports back in 2023 and 2024, which taught us not to be complacent. During that period, even a minor beat on inflation expectations would send the US Dollar Index soaring and equity futures tumbling. Given this history, we are positioning defensively, using VIX call options as a direct hedge against a potential market shock.
With the USD/JPY already pushing above 152.50, the political shift in Japan introduces more unpredictability. The market is concerned that Prime Minister Takaichi’s policies could lead to more fiscal spending, potentially weakening the yen further. This policy divergence with the US makes long positions on the USD/JPY pair seem attractive, possibly through futures or options contracts.
Gold is consolidating around $4,150 an ounce, acting as a barometer for market anxiety ahead of the US inflation numbers. Its price is very sensitive to real yields, meaning a surprisingly low inflation print could send gold higher as it would imply less aggressive central bank policy. We are looking at collar strategies on gold ETFs to protect our existing positions while allowing for some upside participation.
The crypto market continues to show notable strength, with Bitcoin trading above $109,000 even as traditional finance holds its breath. We are observing significant whale accumulation in Ethereum, with on-chain data showing large wallets adding to their holdings near the $3,800 level. This underlying demand suggests that any broad market dip caused by the CPI data could be seen by crypto traders as a buying opportunity.
