Insights 
VT 
Gold Prices Buoyed
In a broader economic context, the International Monetary Fund raised its global growth forecast slightly but warned that the expansion rate remains understated amid acute uncertainties. Lido DAO saw some recovery with the release of its V3 testnet, regaining support above $1.00, signifying technological advancements and updates within the protocol framework.
We saw Canadian wholesale sales for August come in slightly better than expected, contracting by 1.2% against a forecasted -1.3%. This small beat is significant when paired with last month’s data showing Canada’s Q2 2025 GDP grew by 0.4%, avoiding the technical recession seen in the United States. We believe this suggests positioning for Canadian dollar strength against the greenback, possibly through buying put options on the USD/CAD pair.
The main story continues to be the weak US dollar, driven by persistent trade tensions and clear signals of impending Federal Reserve rate cuts. Fed fund futures are now pricing in an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the November 2025 FOMC meeting, especially after the latest US Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.9. This environment suggests that buying volatility options on major US indices could be a prudent hedge against further uncertainty.
Gold is a direct beneficiary of this environment, holding firm around $4,200 per ounce due to the weak dollar and geopolitical risk. Central bank net purchases of gold also reportedly accelerated in the third quarter of 2025, reaching their highest level since 2022 and providing a solid floor for prices. Traders should look at call options on gold futures or related ETFs to gain exposure to potential upside if US fiscal gridlock worsens.
Global Central Bank Policy Divergence
We are also seeing a clear divergence in global central bank policy, with institutions like the Reserve Bank of Australia flagging inflation risks while the Fed leans dovish. Australia’s latest quarterly CPI came in at 3.8%, contrasting sharply with the disinflationary trend in the US and supporting a more hawkish RBA stance. This divergence makes currency pairs like AUD/USD attractive for strategies that benefit from a rising Australian dollar.
