Insights 
VT 
Turkey’s current account balance in August was recorded at $5.455 billion, surpassing forecasts of $5.3 billion. This exceeded expectation reflects in the adjustments in global markets and economic activities during this period.
Elsewhere, various financial instruments have been showing notable fluctuations. Silver is testing new limits, while currency pairs like AUD/USD and EUR/USD display range-bound activities amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
Global Market Developments
The global narrative is also impacted by other significant developments. Gold has extended its rally powered by trade tensions and central bank policies. Meanwhile, discussions around US-China tariffs and their outcomes are in focus, affecting various market sectors.
Meme coins have shown a rebound after a severe market downturn, indicating a comeback in retail demand. This interest follows a substantial loss seen after a $19 billion liquidation, highlighting changes in investor behaviour towards these digital assets.
The surprising Turkish current account surplus for August, coming in at $5.455 billion, is a significant shift from the deficits we saw throughout most of 2024. This unexpected strength in Turkey’s external finances suggests the lira may have room to appreciate against the dollar. We should consider buying call options on the Turkish lira or selling USD/TRY futures, anticipating a break below its recent range.
Geopolitical tensions are keeping markets on edge, with ongoing US-China trade negotiations and political instability in France creating uncertainty. This environment continues to fuel the rally in safe-haven assets like gold, which has pushed well past its previous all-time highs from early 2024. Long positions in gold futures or call options on gold-backed ETFs seem prudent to hedge against this instability.
Impact of Geopolitical Events
The political turmoil in France is particularly weighing on the euro, keeping the EUR/USD pair on the defensive. We see this as an opportunity to initiate short positions, as the shared currency struggles to find support. Meanwhile, GBP/USD remains stuck in a range, supported by expectations that the Bank of England will be slower to cut rates than the US Federal Reserve.
The broadly subdued US dollar reflects market bets on a more dovish Federal Reserve, especially as recent US economic data points to slowing growth compared to the stronger figures we saw in late 2023. As of September 2025, the US unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.2%, giving the Fed more reason to pause or pivot. This makes selling dollar index futures an attractive strategy against a basket of other currencies.
Despite the macro headwinds, there is still an appetite for risk in some corners of the market. The Australian dollar is finding support from stable economic data out of China, suggesting range-trading strategies could be effective for AUD/USD. We also note that meme coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu are stabilizing after a sharp sell-off last month, indicating that speculative retail traders are cautiously re-entering the market.
