Insights 
VT 
Spain’s year-on-year industrial output, adjusted for the calendar, rose to 3.4% in August, up from a prior 2.5%. This surge reflects an improvement in Spain’s industrial sector performance over the given period.
Meanwhile, global economic events have created notable movements in currency pairs and commodities. The EUR/USD pair has seen a drop due to France’s political uncertainty, with the Euro struggling amid the USD rebound. Gold, however, remains strong and near a record high, buoyed by safe-haven buying amidst potential US government shutdown risks.
Cryptocurrency Market Volatility
The cryptocurrency market faces volatility, with Bitcoin underperforming against traditional assets like Gold in Q3. Gold continued to rally, achieving record highs, whereas Bitcoin provided only modest gains. In other financial news, the Aptos (APT) blockchain token is experiencing heightened retail interest due to stablecoin activity.
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We are seeing conflicting signals from Europe that suggest volatility is on the horizon. The strong Spanish industrial output, which beat forecasts by rising 3.4%, points to some underlying economic resilience. However, this positive data is being completely overshadowed by the political turmoil in France, which is weighing heavily on the euro.
The resignation of the French Prime Minister has pushed the EUR/USD down to challenge the 1.1650 level, a sharp pullback after its rally from the lows we saw back in 2024. This political uncertainty makes holding long euro positions risky, so we should consider buying put options on the euro as a hedge against further instability. The French CAC 40 equity index has also seen a spike in implied volatility, with futures dropping over 2% since the news broke.
Gold’s Impressive Run
Gold continues its impressive run, now trading above $3,900 an ounce as traders seek safety. The looming threat of a US government shutdown and recent US CPI data coming in cooler than expected are fueling bets that the Federal Reserve will have to cut rates soon. For derivative traders, this means call options on gold remain an attractive strategy to capture further upside momentum.
The US Dollar is strengthening despite the dovish Fed expectations, acting as the primary safe-haven asset alongside gold. This is pressuring pairs like GBP/USD, which is struggling below 1.3450. We should watch for this divergence to continue, where bad news from anywhere in the world disproportionately benefits the dollar.
