Insights 
VT 
China’s imports for April showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, surpassing expectations of a 5.9% decline. This performance is contrasting with previous forecasts and indicates an unexpected growth in imports.
The EUR/USD pair experienced a rebound above 1.1200, currently trading around 1.1230, despite a robust US Dollar stemming from positive US economic indicators. On the other hand, GBP/USD remains pressured below 1.3250, impacted by the persistent strength of the US Dollar.
Gold Prices
Gold prices hit new weekly lows, trading below $3,300 as the US Dollar strengthened ahead of US-China trade negotiations. Gold needs a daily close below the $3,307 21-day SMA mark to negate its short-term bullish potential.
Ripple’s price is consolidating around $2.31 after reaching an SEC settlement involving a $50 million agreement. This development is pending approval and may soon influence the overall trajectory of Ripple’s price in the market.
The FOMC has kept the federal funds rate unchanged at the anticipated target range of 4.25%-4.50%. This decision reflects the current economic conditions and aligns with market expectations in the monetary policy sector.
China’s Import Figures
China’s import figures for April came in starkly ahead of market expectations, growing by 0.8% on a yearly basis when analysts had predicted a sharp drop. While modest on the surface, this beat signals that domestic demand may be less sluggish than previously feared. A rebound in global commodity purchases or an increase in restocking efforts could be contributing factors here—either way, this complicates the current disinflationary assumptions tied to lower Chinese activity.
From a macro perspective, this weighs into how we map cross-asset sensitivity in the coming weeks. For those of us aligning trade flows with broader rate signals, this shift introduces a fresh layer of unpredictability, particularly when interpreting capital rotation or rebalancing within Asia-based exposures.
Turning to currencies, the rise in the EUR/USD above 1.1200—despite firmer data from the US—says much about investor positioning. The move to hover near 1.1230 appears less driven by momentum and more by cautious recalibration ahead of regional inflation prints. Although the Dollar remains structurally supported, especially after recent US releases came in strong, the euro’s climb suggests that short-term real yield differentials may be less straightforward than the weekly charts imply. Scalping directional bias here could prove misleading absent more precision from both macro data and ECB pricing.
Meanwhile, the British pound remains notably less buoyant. With the pair unable to reclaim 1.3250, it seems reasonable to interpret this broader Dollar resilience as more penalising for sterling. Diverging rate expectations across the Atlantic are tightening their grip, and for now, elevated USD positioning appears to be dragging GBP/USD sentiment back into range-bound play. Traders short the pound may want to stay patient for one more definitive technical trigger before reducing exposure.
As for bullion, prices have dipped to weekly lows beneath $3,300, driven by a stronger greenback in the shadow of upcoming US-China trade talks. Gold quite often serves as a volatility shelter when headlines swirl unpredictably, but its current technical setup is testing that function. The $3,307 level—marking the 21-day simple moving average—acts almost like an interim defence line, and its breach could unpin support structures. For positions to the long side, any failure to bounce back above this average by week’s end adds downside risk to unwinding flows.
In digital assets, Ripple is moving sideways near $2.31. This follows the provisional resolution of enforcement action involving a $50 million penalty. Although pricing remains stable now, final approval of the settlement will likely give traders concrete direction. That said, caution remains warranted here. With legal uncertainty partially cleared but sentiment not yet reset, momentum could accelerate sharply in either direction depending on follow-up developments, especially in secondary rulings or related compliance measures.
Lastly, with the Federal Reserve maintaining its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50%, there is a reaffirmation of its wait-and-see posture. The hold mirrored market forecasts but serves mainly to reinforce that the present equilibrium—between containing inflation and preventing overtightening—remains delicate. This reinforces medium-term interest rate volatility, particularly on shorter-dated US futures contracts. Our models continue to show that subtle messages in the FOMC statement tend to drive more variance than the actual decision. Pricing over the next few weeks may become especially reactive to real-time economic releases and any adjusted forward guidance.
