The FX option expiries for 3 July include a few notable ones coinciding with the US jobs report release.

For EUR/USD, expiries range from 1.1750 to 1.1850. A particularly large expiry at 1.1800 may influence price action until the non-farm payrolls data is released later.

Usd Jpy Expiry Details

In USD/JPY, there is an expiry at the 144.00 level. This may help restrict price movement alongside the current 100-hour moving average at 143.95.

For USD/CAD, an expiry at 1.3600 is likely to keep prices stable during European trading hours. Major movements are expected after the US jobs report release influences dollar sentiment.

The expiry board for tomorrow is relatively thin as US markets will not be active until next week.

The current configuration across the expiry calendar paints a clear picture: short-term sensitivity to macro inputs remains closely tied to price levels being defended or drawn towards by option flows. There’s less ambiguity once we stack that against thinner liquidity, particularly in the lead-up to a data-heavy session where expectations are reactively priced rather than proactively rebalanced.

With large downside gamma rolling off near 1.1800 for the euro-dollar, it is no coincidence we’ve hovered within proximity of that figure. We’ve seen this sort of pinning behaviour before, especially when expiries align neatly with both psychological levels and near-term technical congestion. It’s not about second-guessing the direction of the headline print for the payrolls report, but rather accepting that broad shifts in rate differentials can compress only so much before a release forces re-appraisal. These are moments to watch for breakout extensions right after the European close, just as implied volatility is beginning to be realised.

The dollar-yen expiry near 144.00, while narrower in scope, tracks precisely where short-term technicals are providing support. If price settles around this band before the New York window, we can assume that options desks, particularly delta hedgers, have already done much of the heavy lifting to stabilise intraday ranges. However, once liquidity flows resume in force, the move away from this platform could be swift. Experience has shown that when spot trades neatly atop a large expiry, overshoots post-data often prove exaggerated but short-lived, especially when follow-on positioning hasn’t been overbuilt.

Canadian Dollar Considerations

Meanwhile, Canadian dollar flows are showing a tendency to remain dormant until broader greenback inputs shift. The 1.3600 region acts here more as an anchor during quiet phases of the day – not necessarily due to fresh influxes of participation, but because related flow is more passive than decisive. Any reaction out of the data will likely feature faster momentum as the expiry drops out and new levels are freely tested. The trade is more about staying reactive than predictive.

Tomorrow’s expiry board won’t carry much weight, considering the American session is essentially on hold for the remainder of the week. Thin volumes and diminished cross-border activity tend to invite jagged, erratic reactions if surprise data emerges from elsewhere, especially in yen crosses.

What matters now is aligning positioning tactics around whether these known expiry levels prevent movement, merely slow it down, or no longer provide any meaningful barrier once external inputs reset short-term carry expectations. We don’t need to overcomplicate the read – strike zones that previously slowed movement can quickly lose importance the moment new rate assumptions force re-pricing in pairs that had drifted too close to implied volatility’s lower bound.

Patience in these conditions pays best when it’s paired with timing that respects where liquidity thins out naturally and where option-related flows tend to exert gravitational pull.

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