Insights 
VT 
Ireland’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 1.6% year-on-year in July 2025, in line with expectations. This aligns with previous forecasts, maintaining the same annual growth rate as prior reports.
The GBP/USD currency pair climbed above 1.3400 after the Bank of England’s modest policy rate cut by 25 basis points. This move was influenced by a tight vote where four policymakers preferred holding rates steady, providing support to the Pound Sterling.
Currency Market Movements
EUR/USD traded near 1.1650 as markets awaited US data. The US Dollar showed weakness, but a decline in the EUR/GBP following the BoE decision capped gains for the pair.
Gold saw a decline after reaching over two-week highs, trading below $3,400, yet remained above $3,900, amidst geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin stabilised below the $116,000 resistance as new US tariffs came into effect, suggesting trader indecision.
The US economic landscape remains uncertain with ongoing trade policy volatility. Expectations point towards an impending economic slowdown, though sharp trade fluctuations are believed to be past.
Given the tight vote at the Bank of England, we believe the path for GBP is now less certain. A 25 basis point cut was expected, but the strong opposition suggests future cuts are not guaranteed, limiting further downside for the pound. We are considering short-term volatility plays on GBP/USD, possibly using options straddles to capture movement in either direction around the current 1.3400 level.
US Job Report Speculation
All eyes are now on this Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls report for direction in EUR/USD. After last month’s disappointing addition of only 95,000 jobs, another weak report could confirm the US slowdown narrative and propel the pair towards the 1.1800 resistance. We are positioned cautiously, awaiting this key data before adding to any long dollar-negative positions.
Gold’s behaviour shows it remains a primary safe-haven asset in the current climate. Its ability to hold above $3,900 an ounce, despite a brief dip, signals strong underlying support from ongoing geopolitical risks and economic fears. We see any pullbacks as potential opportunities to buy call options, anticipating that uncertainty will continue to fuel demand.
The stall in Bitcoin below the $116,000 resistance level suggests significant indecision among traders. Open interest on major crypto derivative exchanges has fallen by nearly 15% this past week, indicating capital is moving to the sidelines amid the new US tariff uncertainty. Until a clear break of this level occurs, we are avoiding large directional bets.
With signs of an impending US economic slowdown becoming clearer, we are looking at protective strategies for equity portfolios. The VIX, a key measure of expected market volatility, has risen to 22.5, a level we haven’t seen since the first quarter of this year. This suggests buying put options on major indices like the S&P 500 could be a prudent hedge for the coming weeks.
